云南地区季降水量和气温的潜在可预报性分析  

Analysis of Potential Predictability for Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature in Yunnan

作　　者：叶坤辉[1] 肖子牛[2,3] 刘波[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]中国气象局干部培训学院,北京100081 [3]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029 [4]国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2012年第4期402-410,共9页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(U0833602)资助

摘　　要：利用云南地区42年气候资料,使用低频白噪声延伸法和方差分析方法,估计了该地区季节降水量和季节气温的气候噪声方差和潜在可预报性。分析结果表明:(1)云南季降水量的气候噪声方差随着季节降水量的增加而增加,空间上主要是由南往北减小,夏季降水量的气候噪声方差显著大于其他季节,季气温的气候噪声方差则随着季节气温的减小而增加,空间上春、冬季由东往西减小而夏、秋季由南往北增加;冬季气温的气候噪声方差显著大于其他季节;(2)云南季降水量和季气温的潜在可预报性同样具有显著的季节变化和空间变化,云南春季的降水量和气温的潜在可预报性均显著大于其他季节,夏季降水量和气温的潜在可预报性均较其他三个季节小;春、秋季降水量潜在可预报性西部大于东部,夏季北部大于南部,冬季则是南部大于北部,云南季气温除夏季外均是西部大于东部。(3)季风和冷空气活动可能对云南地区的季降水量和气温的潜在可预报性有重要影响。With 42-year climate data in Yunnan, a low-frequency white noise extension method and a vari- ance analysis method are used to estimate climate noise variance and potential predictabilities of the season al rainfall and temperature in Yunnan Province. The results show that, （1） the climate noise variance ofseasonal precipitation in Yunnan increases when the seasonal precipitation increases and is mainly decrea sing from south to north in terms of spatial distribution, the climate noise variance of summer rainfall is significantly greater than that in other seasons. However, climate noise variance of seasonal temperature,increases with the decreasing seasonal temperature and is mainly decreasing from east to west for spring and winter in terms of spatial distribution. While increasing from south to north for summer and autumn, the climate noise variance of winter temperature is significantly greater than that in other seasons. （2）Both potential predictabilities of seasonal precipitation and temperature in Yunnan also have the pro nounced changes in season and space, the potential predictabilities of precipitation and temperature in spring are significantly higher than those in other seasons while in summer are significantly smaller thanthose in other seasons. In spring and autumn, the potential predictability of precipitation over the western is higher than that in the eastern, but in the southern is higher than that in northern in winter. As for sea sonal temperature, except in summer, western is higher than eastern. （3） Both monsoon and the cold airmay play an important role in affecting the potential predictability of seasonal precipitation and temperature in Yunnan Province.

关 键 词：季节预报 潜在可预报性 季风活动 冷空气活动 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]