南极涛动对福建前汛期降水的预测意义  

Antarctic Oscillation's Significance for Prediction of Rainfall in May and June in Fujian

作　　者：何芬[1] 赖绍钧 高建芸[1] 吴伟杰 鲍瑞娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建省气候中心,福州350001 [2]福建省福州市气象局,福州350014 [3]福建省厦门市气象局,厦门361004

出　　处：《气象》2012年第4期432-437,共6页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：福建省气象局开放式气象科学研究基金项目(2010K05)资助

摘　　要：利用1979—2009年逐月NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和福建省66站降水资料,分析了3—4月南极涛动(AAO)的变化对后期福建前汛期(5—6月)降水的影响。结果表明:3—4月平均的AAO指数与福建前汛期降水有很好的正相关性,前期AAO偏强时,后期前汛期降水偏多,反之亦然;且AAO异常时降水的同号率为100%。对AAO异常年的分析发现,当前期AAO异常强时,后期北方冷空气活动频繁,南方暖湿气流输送强盛,在华南北部产生强烈锋生,导致福建前汛期降水偏多;反之,降水偏少。上述结论为福建前汛期降水预测提供了一条可行的新途径。Using the from 1979 March and to 2009, April on monthly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the rainfall data from 66 stations in Fujian this paper analyzes the influences of the variation of Antarctic Oscillation （AAO） in the rainfall before the flood season （May and June） in Fujian. The results show thatthere flood versa. is a positive correlation between the March and April average AAO index and the rainfall before the season in Fujian. The stronger AAO index is correlated with more rainfall in May and June, and vice And the positive AAO index anomaly is associated with the positive rainfall anomaly, and vice versa. Furthermore, the analysis of the AAO anomaly found that the significant strong AAO will be corre- sponding to more active cold air in the Northern China and the stronger wet and warm air in the Southern China. Therefore, the strong frontogenesis will occur in the northern South China, which may result inmore rainfall in May and June, and vice versa. These findings may provide a new way tO predict the rainfall that occurs before the flood season in Fujian.

关 键 词：南极涛动 前汛期降水 环流分析 锋生函数 

分 类 号：P458[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]