气候变化影响下水资源脆弱性评估方法及其应用  

Assessment of Water Resources Vulnerability under Climate Change and Human Activities

作　　者：夏军[1,2] 邱冰[1,3] 潘兴瑶[1] 翁建武[1] 傅国斌[1] 欧阳如林[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101 [2]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [3]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《地球科学进展》2012年第4期443-451,共9页Advances in Earth Science

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目“气候变化对中国东部季风区陆地水循环与水资源安全的影响及适应对策”(编号:2010CB428406);中国科学院对外合作重点项目计划“中荷JSTP‘黄河与莱茵河三角洲海水入侵的检测与模拟研究’”(编号:GJHZ1016)资助

摘　　要：气候变化和人类活动影响下的水资源脆弱性评价,是将气候变化影响纳入水资源规划管理、提出缓解气候变化不利影响的适应性对策的重要科学依据。针对与气候变化影响的水资源系统的敏感性和抗压性相联系的脆弱性与适应性问题,提出变化环境下水资源脆弱性评估理论体系和一般性公式。进一步,以水资源供需安全为出发点,采用温度、降雨双参数弹性系数和有水资源基础,直观、简单的水资源关键性指标体系方法,提出气候变化和人类活动背景下水资源脆弱性评估模型。将模型应用于缺水最严重的海河流域,评价了现状和未来情境下流域水资源的脆弱性情况。结果表明:整体上海河流域水资源脆弱性偏高,且平原区较山区更脆弱;气候因素对流域水资源的脆弱性影响明显,未来如不采取措施,海河流域的水资源脆弱性将进一步加重。Assessment of water resource vulnerability for identifying where water resources are potentially more vulnerable to adverse effects is a pre-requisite to take adaptation strategies.This study proposed a method for water vulnerability evaluation as a function of sensitivity to climate change,people per flow unit of one million cubic meters per year,water use to availability ratio,and per capital water use.Take the Hai River basin,the most water scarcity region in China,as an example.The vulnerability of water resources under current situation and 3 different scenarios in 2050 are evaluated.Results indicate that the plain area suffer from more serious vulnerability than mountain area;although the Hai River basin is predicted to become more moisture,vulnerability of water resources may get no improvement in the future because of the increase of water withdrawal as population and economy continue to grow.

关 键 词：气候变化 水资源脆弱性 评估模型 海河流域 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]