华北地区大范围内中等地震活动平静的统计检验及其预测意义  

QUIESCENCE OF MODERATE EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITY IN NORTH CHINA AND ITS SIGNIFICANCE FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

作　　者：蒋海昆[1] 侯海峰[1] 王锜[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东省地震局,济南250014

出　　处：《内陆地震》2000年第2期97-104,共8页Inland Earthquake

基　　金：地震联合基金!资助项目项目编号 1990 0 6

摘　　要：以相邻 2次地震的时间间隔作为统计量 ,对华北地区的地震活动异常平静进行了统计检验。统计结果表明 ,中小地震的时间间隔服从幂指数分布。对华北地区而言 ,中强地震之前大范围内中小地震活动的异常平静现象是明显的 ,以 90 %的置信概率认为 ,ML≥ 4 .5地震持续 110天以上的平静可判定为异常 ;约有 70 %的平静异常出现之后 ,华北地区有 MS≥ 5.0地震发生。Using the temporal interval between two neighbouring earthquakes as the statistic,the statistic and examination of earthquake quiescence in North China have been given in this paper.And the statistical result shows that the distribution of the interval of two neighbouring small moderate events obeys the power function.For North China,there is an obvious earthquake quiescences before moderate strong earthquakes.If the quiet time of M L≥4.5 earthquake is more than 110 days,it can be regarded as an abnormal precursor with the believable probability of 90 per cent.After a quiescence anomaly,in most cases (about 70%),the moderate strong earthquake with M S≥5.0 will occur.

关 键 词：地震平静 概率估计 地震间隔时间 地震活动 

分 类 号：P315.5[天文地球—地震学] P315.7[天文地球—固体地球物理学]