基于边界检验的中国谷物进口需求研究  

Research on China's Cereal Import Demand Based on the Boundary Test

作　　者：赵亮[1] 穆月英[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2012年第4期4-14,共11页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71073158)

摘　　要：文章在边界检验的基础上建立进口需求函数的UECM模型,研究了我国谷物进口对收入与相对价格的短期和长期弹性,结果发现玉米和大麦进口对收入和相对价格具有长期均衡的关系。从4个国家进口不同谷物产品长期收入弹性系数均为负,相对价格均为正;我国从美国进口玉米的短期相对价格弹性和从法国进口小麦的长期收入弹性都明显较大,即我国对美国和法国谷物进口较敏感;而从泰国进口水稻和从澳大利亚进口大麦的进口收入和相对价格弹性相对较小,即我国对泰国和澳大利亚谷物进口不论短期还是长期均不敏感,并保持相对稳定,从满足国内谷物需求的角度看,我国应与这两个国家建立长期稳定的贸易合作关系。Based on the boundary test,this paper constructs the UECM model of Chinese import demand function and makes a research on the short and long-term elasticity of incomes and relative prices of cereal imports.The results show that the imports of corn and barley have a long-term equilibrium relationship with their relative prices and incomes;the long-term income elasticity of cereal products from the four different countries is negative while the elasticity of their relative prices is positive;the short-term relative price elasticity of corn import from the United States and the long-term income elasticity of wheat import from France are obviously big,which means that China is more sensitive in importing cereals from the United States and France;the income and relative price elasticity of rice import from Thailand and that of barley import from Australia are relatively small,which means that neither in the short term nor in the long term China is sensitive in importing from Thailand and Australia and remains relatively stable;from the perspective of meeting domestic cereal needs,China should establish a long-term stable trade cooperation relationship with Thailand and Australia.

关 键 词：谷物进口 边界检验 UECM 弹性系数 进口需求函数 

分 类 号：F752.61[经济管理—国际贸易]