中原农区耕地预警实证研究——以郸城县为例  

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON CROPLAND EARLY

作　　者：孟俊杰[1] 蔡世忠[1] 吴荣涛[2] 

机构地区：[1]河南省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究中心,郑州450002 [2]河南省国土资源调查规划院,郑州450002

出　　处：《中国农业资源与区划》2012年第2期28-33,共6页Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning

基　　金：国家“十一五科技支撑计划”项目子课题“中原农区基本农田保护技术研究应用”（项目编号2006BAJ05A14）;2010年河南省政府决策招标课题“河南省农地流转的机制和模式研究”（课题编号B852）

摘　　要：该研究以层次分析法（AHP）为基础确定耕地预警指标体系，利用河南省年度指标数据和系统化方法确定各指标警限，利用曲线趋势外推法和时间序列指数平滑法外推预警年份指标数值，用扩散指数（DI指数）判断总警度，建立一套便于推广的、便于横向和纵向相比较的不同区域耕地预警系统，并以河南省郸城县为例进行实证分析。研究表明，郸城县耕地多数年份处于无警状态，但个别年份存在警情，提出了控制人口增长速度、加强农村基础设施建设、稳定并提高农作物播种面积等政策建议。A land early -warning system was established and used in the Dancheng county Henan province which could be easily extended and compared among different regions, involving an early -warning indicator system con- structed based on AHP method, the warning limits of indicators determined by systematic method and the indicator data, the values of indicators calculated by curve trend extrapolation and time series exponential smoothing extrapo- lation, the total alarming degree determined by diffusion index. The empirical studies showed that, as a traditional agricultural county, Dancheng County＇s farmland was safe except a few years. Finally, some suggestions were put forward such as controlling population growth speed, strengthening rural infrastructure, stabilizing and increasing crop acreage, speeding up scientific and technological progress, and so on.

关 键 词：中原农区耕地预警层次分析法郸城县 

分 类 号：O225[理学—运筹学与控制论]