Trend of snow cover fraction over East Asia in the 21st century under different scenarios  

作　　者：Fang Wang YiHui Ding 

机构地区：[1]National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China

出　　处：《Research in Cold and Arid Regions》2012年第2期107-114,共8页寒旱区科学（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Key Science and Technology Program of Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No. 2007BAC03A01)

摘　　要：Using the snow cover fi＇action （SNC） output from eight WCRP CMIP3 climate models under SRES A2, A1B, and B1 scenarios, the future trend of SNC over East Asia is analyzed. Results show that SNC is likely to decrease in East Asia, with the fastest decrease in spring, then winter and autumn, and the slowest in summer, In spring and winter the SNC decreases faster in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau than in northern East Asia, while in autumn there is little difference between them. Among the various scenarios, SRES A2 has the largest decrease trend, then A1B, and B1 has the smallest trend. The decrease in SNC is mainly caused by the changes in surface air temperature and snowfall, which contribute differently to the SNC trends in different regions and seasons.Using the snow cover fi＇action （SNC） output from eight WCRP CMIP3 climate models under SRES A2, A1B, and B1 scenarios, the future trend of SNC over East Asia is analyzed. Results show that SNC is likely to decrease in East Asia, with the fastest decrease in spring, then winter and autumn, and the slowest in summer, In spring and winter the SNC decreases faster in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau than in northern East Asia, while in autumn there is little difference between them. Among the various scenarios, SRES A2 has the largest decrease trend, then A1B, and B1 has the smallest trend. The decrease in SNC is mainly caused by the changes in surface air temperature and snowfall, which contribute differently to the SNC trends in different regions and seasons.

关 键 词：snow cover future trend Qinghai-Xizang Plateau East Asia 

分 类 号：P426.635[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] O112[理学—数学]