A descriptor for the local dust storm occurrence probability constituted by meteorological factors  

作　　者：WanYuan Li ShiHua Lu ZhiBao Dong ShiGong Wang ZhiBao Shen YuChun Chen Ye Yu YinHuan Ao 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China [2]Key Laboratory of Desert and Desertification, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China [3]Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China

出　　处：《Research in Cold and Arid Regions》2012年第2期140-153,共14页寒旱区科学（英文版）

基　　金：funded by National Program on Key Basic Research Project (973 Program, Grant No. 2009CB421402);the open foundation from Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education,Lanzhou University,and National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40975007)

摘　　要：Based on daily data sets of 17 meteorological factors during the period of 1954-2005 for 60 gauge stations distributed over Gansu Province of China and the corresponding dust storm records, the dust storm probabilities related to different classes of each factor have been calculated and analyzed. On the basis of statistical analysis, a meteorological descriptor quantifying the daily dust storm occurrence probability for each station, which is referred to as the Dust Storm Occurrence Probability Index （DSOPI）, has been effectively established. According to the statistical characteristics of DSOPI for each station, a feasible judging criterion for a dust storm event has been determined, which can greatly contribute to forecasting dust storms and completing the unavailable historic dust storm records. Meanwhile, the average daily dust storm probability related to each factor on the dust storm day for each station has been specially analyzed in detail, finally disclosing that, in general, the more signifi- cant one factor＇s influence on dust storms, the greater its contribution to them; and each factor＇s contribution clearly varies from place to place. Moreover, on average, maximum and mean wind speeds, maximum-speed wind direction, daily sunny hours, evaporation, mean and lowest relative humidity, lowest surface air pressure and vapor pressure contribute to dust storm events in Gansu Province most greatly in order among all the 17 involved factors.Based on daily data sets of 17 meteorological factors during the period of 1954-2005 for 60 gauge stations distributed over Gansu Province of China and the corresponding dust storm records, the dust storm probabilities related to different classes of each factor have been calculated and analyzed. On the basis of statistical analysis, a meteorological descriptor quantifying the daily dust storm occurrence probability for each station, which is referred to as the Dust Storm Occurrence Probability Index （DSOPI）, has been effectively established. According to the statistical characteristics of DSOPI for each station, a feasible judging criterion for a dust storm event has been determined, which can greatly contribute to forecasting dust storms and completing the unavailable historic dust storm records. Meanwhile, the average daily dust storm probability related to each factor on the dust storm day for each station has been specially analyzed in detail, finally disclosing that, in general, the more signifi- cant one factor＇s influence on dust storms, the greater its contribution to them; and each factor＇s contribution clearly varies from place to place. Moreover, on average, maximum and mean wind speeds, maximum-speed wind direction, daily sunny hours, evaporation, mean and lowest relative humidity, lowest surface air pressure and vapor pressure contribute to dust storm events in Gansu Province most greatly in order among all the 17 involved factors.

关 键 词：meteorological factor dust storm OCCURRENCE SIGNIFICANCE probability index CONTRIBUTION 

分 类 号：P425.55[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] O211.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]