人民币升值预期与东南亚人民币化——基于小国视角跨期均衡货币替代模型的分析  

The Expectation of RMB Appreciation and Southeast Asia's RMB Regionalization——Based on an Inter-temporal Equilibrium Currency Substitution Model

作　　者：张见[1] 刘力臻[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学,吉林长春130117

出　　处：《太平洋学报》2012年第2期74-80,共7页Pacific Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"中国积极参与国际货币体系改革进程研究"(10ZD&054);国家社会科学基金重点项目"开放经济内外双均衡协调发展研究"(08GJA001);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助"开放经济内外双均衡协调发展研究--基于资产价格波动;宏观政策搭配;日本案例的分析"(09SSXT108)

摘　　要：通过建立东南亚国家代表性居民效用最大化的跨期均衡货币替代模型,我们发现人民币升值预期是东南亚人民币化的重要机遇。在此基础上,本文结合人民币持续升值的现实和不断强化的升值预期,进一步探讨了基于人民币升值预期背景的东南亚人民币化的可行策略。By means of constructing an inter - temporal equilibrium currency substitution mode based on repre-sentative resident＇ s utility maximization in Southeast Asian countries, we found that the expectation of RMB appreciation is an important opportunity for Southeast Asia＇ s RMB Regionalization. On the basis of this analysis, integrating with the reality of sustainable appreciation of RMB and the growing expectation of RMB appreciation, the feasible strategies to promote Southeast Asia＇ s RMB regionalization have been further discussed against the background of the expectation of RMB appreciation.

关 键 词：人民币升值预期 东南亚人民币化 货币替代 策略选择 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]