脆弱的高边疆:后冷战时代美国太空威慑的战略困境  

Fragile High Frontier : The Strategic Dilemma of U.S.Space Deterrence in the Post-Cold War Era

作　　者：何奇松[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海政法学院国际事务与公共管理系,教授上海201701

出　　处：《中国社会科学》2012年第4期183-204,208,共22页Social Sciences in China

基　　金：教育部2010年一般项目"空间安全问题研究"(编号10YJAGJW004);上海市2009年社科规划项目"太空安全问题与中国对策研究"(编号2009BGJ003)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：冷战时代太空资产成为美国核威慑的重要组成部分。冷战后,美国太空威慑成为相对独立的威慑力量,成为军队战斗力倍增器。美国大力发展太空实力使得美国高度依赖太空,而太空资产与生俱来的缺陷是对攻击具有相当的脆弱性,这种依赖性和脆弱性造就了美国太空威慑的根本性困境。随着反卫星技术的扩散,美国日益关注如何慑止对手攻击美国太空资产,试图构建太空威慑理论。在太空威慑实践上,美国采取了广泛的措施,包括确立国际太空行为规范,与盟国建立太空伙伴关系,增强美国在恶劣环境下作战的弹性和能力,制定替代选择方案等。然而,美国的太空威慑无论在理论上还是在实践上都面临着难以化解的战略窘境。In the Cold War period , space assets constituted an important component of the U.S. nuclear deterrence.In the Post-Cold War era , however , space deterrence has been separated from U.S.nuclear deterrence and become a relatively independent deterrent force and amplifier of military capability.The United States has invested heavily in developing its space capacity , which has in turn resulted in a high degree of dependence on space. However , the innate defect of space assets is their relative fragility or vulnerability to attacks.This dependence and vulnerability have brought about the fundamental dilemma of U.S.space deterrence.With the spread of anti-satellite technologies , the United States has become increasingly concerned with forestalling enemy attacks on its space assets and has tried to construct a theory of space deterrence.In terms of practice , it has taken a broad range of measures including establishing international norms for space activities , forming space partnerships with allies , strengthening U.S.flexibility and capacity for fighting in harsh environments , formulating contingency plans , etc. However , U.S.space deterrence faces strategic dilemmas in both theory and practice which will not be easy to resolve.

关 键 词：美国霸权 太空威慑 核威慑 安全困境 

分 类 号：K712.54[历史地理—历史学] E712[历史地理—世界史]