建设用地扩张影响因子的选取及分析  

Selection and Analysis of Influencing Factors in Expansion of Construction Land

作　　者：方振华 覃豪杰 范昆飞[3] 吴爱群 

机构地区：[1]南宁市勘测院,南宁530022 [2]广西国土测绘院,南宁530021 [3]南宁市国土资源信息中心,南宁530021

出　　处：《国土资源科技管理》2012年第2期58-64,共7页Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources

基　　金：教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-07-0331)

摘　　要：研究建设用地规模扩张的影响因子,并选取相关性较显著的因子,与建设用地间建立合理的多元回归模型,拟合建设用地发展趋势,可对用地扩张规模及需求进行预测。通过对某市历年统计数据中的诸多影响因子进行相关分析,筛选剔除存在多重共线性以及与建设用地相关性较弱的因子,建立科学的多元回归模型,并与灰色GM(1,1)模型法的结果作比较。结果表明,所选取的驱动因子合理,其与建设用地扩张的趋势相适应,所建立的多元回归模型可靠,可较好的拟合用地的发展趋势。This paper discusses the influencing factors in the expansion of construction land,selects some factors with obvious correlation with land increase,and builds a reasonable multiple regression model that helps to predict the expansion scale and the demand for construction land.The paper makes correlation analysis within several influencing factors using the data over the years of a city,filters and eliminates some factors with weak correlation and multicollinearity.And then a scientific multiple regression model is built and compared with the result of Grey Model（1,1）.The results indicate that the selected factors are reasonable and appropriate for the construction land expansion,and that the multiple regression model is reliable and suits the development trend.

关 键 词：用地扩张 影响因子 建设用地 回归法 

分 类 号：F293.2[经济管理—国民经济]