基于正态云模型和熵权的河西走廊城市化生态风险综合评价  

Comprehensive assessment on ecological risk of Hexi Corridor urbanization based on normal cloud model and entropy weight

作　　者：龚艳冰[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,常州213022

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2012年第5期169-174,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：江苏省高校哲学社会科学基金项目(09SJD630008);中央高校基本业务费科研项目(2010B24014)资助

摘　　要：为有效的评估河西走廊城市化生态风险的程度,针对城市化进程中生态风险评估中存在的模糊性和随机性问题,建立了基于正态云模型和熵权的综合评判模型。综合考虑资源风险、生态风险及环境风险3个方面构建河西走廊城市化进程中的生态风险指标体系,采用熵权法确定各个指标权重,借助于正态云模型定量描述单指标条件下待评价城市的生态风险等级。采用云模型理论实现评语与评估指标值之间的不确定映射,保留了评估过程中的随机性。最后,以河西走廊5个具有代表性的城市生态风险为例对模型进行验证,结果表明:该模型比传统的模糊综合法能得到更加合理的评估结果。In order to evaluate the ecological risk degree of the Hexi Corridor urbanization, the ecological risk e- valuation model based on the normal cloud model and entropy theory was presented to solve the fuzzy and random problem in the process of urbanization. Three assessment indexes were considered, namely, resources risks, eco- logical risk, and environmental risk in the process of urbanization. The entropy weight method was used to com- pute the evaluation factors＇weights, and the normal cloud model was used to describe grade of ecological risk un- der single index. The method keeps the random in evaluation. Finally, a case study was implemented using the method to assess the ecological risk grade of five cities Hexi Corridor. Compared with the fuzzy evaluation meth- od, the model achieves the right evaluation result.

关 键 词：城市化 生态环境 正态云 评价 

分 类 号：X820.2[环境科学与工程—环境工程]