Predictability of the East Asian Winter Monsoon Interannual Variability as Indicated by the DEMETER CGCMS  

作　　者：李菲 王会军 

机构地区：[1]Nansen-Zhu International Research Center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences [2]Climate Change Research Center,Chinese Academy of Sciences [3]Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2012年第3期441-454,共14页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (973 Program,Grant No. 2009CB421406);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41130103 and 40821092);the Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology,Grant No. GYHY200906018);the Norwegian Research Council "East Asia DecCen"Project

摘　　要：The interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） circulation from the Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble （MME） System for Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction （DEMETER） hindcasts was evaluated against observation reanalysis data. We evaluated the DEMETER coupled general circulation models （CGCMs）＇ retrospective prediction of the typical EAWM and its associated atmospheric circulation. Results show that the EAWM can be reasonably predicted with statistically significant accuracy, yet the major bias of the hindcast models is the underestimation of the related anomalies. The temporal correlation coefficient （TCC） of the MME-produced EAWM index, defined as the first EOF mode of 850- hPa air temperature within the EAWM domain （20^-60~N, 90^-150~E）, was 0.595. This coefficient was higher than those of the corresponding individual models （range： 0.39-0.51） for the period 1969 2001; this result indicates the advantage of the super-ensemble approach. This study also showed that the ensemble models can reasonably reproduce the major modes and their interannual variabilities for sea level pressure, geopotential height, surface air temperature, and wind fields in Eurasia. Therefore, the prediction of EAWM interannual variability is feasible using multimodel ensemble systems and that they may also reveal the associated mechanisms of the EAWM interannual variability.The interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） circulation from the Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble （MME） System for Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction （DEMETER） hindcasts was evaluated against observation reanalysis data. We evaluated the DEMETER coupled general circulation models （CGCMs）＇ retrospective prediction of the typical EAWM and its associated atmospheric circulation. Results show that the EAWM can be reasonably predicted with statistically significant accuracy, yet the major bias of the hindcast models is the underestimation of the related anomalies. The temporal correlation coefficient （TCC） of the MME-produced EAWM index, defined as the first EOF mode of 850- hPa air temperature within the EAWM domain （20^-60~N, 90^-150~E）, was 0.595. This coefficient was higher than those of the corresponding individual models （range： 0.39-0.51） for the period 1969 2001; this result indicates the advantage of the super-ensemble approach. This study also showed that the ensemble models can reasonably reproduce the major modes and their interannual variabilities for sea level pressure, geopotential height, surface air temperature, and wind fields in Eurasia. Therefore, the prediction of EAWM interannual variability is feasible using multimodel ensemble systems and that they may also reveal the associated mechanisms of the EAWM interannual variability.

关 键 词：East Asian winter monsoon interannual variability DEMETER HINDCAST 

分 类 号：P425.42[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TP316.2[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论]