未来10a长江三角洲地区耕地数量变化对区域粮食产能的影响——基于耕地质量等别的视角  

Impact of Cultivated Land Quantity Change on Grain Productive Capacity of Yangtze River Delta in the Next 10 Years——From the Perspective of Cultivated Land Quality Grade

作　　者：肖丽群[1] 陈伟[1] 吴群[1] 马素华[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学土地管理学院,南京210095 [2]中国土地勘测规划院,北京100035

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2012年第4期565-576,共12页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(09&ZD046);国家自然科学基金项目(710730825);中国土地勘测规划院"2010年度农用地分等定级与估价项目"(2010-9.1-2)

摘　　要：基于全国农用地分等工作成果,采用定量分析法和对比分析法,研究了未来10 a长江三角洲地区耕地变化对区域粮食产能的影响。研究结果表明:①长江三角洲地区耕地利用等别处于全国中等偏上水平,耕地质量总体较优;②根据新一轮土地利用总体规划,未来10 a内长江三角洲地区耕地数量和质量均存在下降趋势,减少的耕地主要集中在利用等别较高、质量较优的区域;③长江三角洲地区最高等别、最低等别耕地的标准面积与统计面积相比,减少和增加耕地的比例为0.1∶1,减少和增加标准粮产量的比例为0.52∶1。相对于低等别耕地,高等别耕地数量变化对粮食产能影响更大;④耕地占补平衡中,由于占优补劣原因使耕地质量下降,导致补充耕地的粮食产能大大降低。Based on the achievements of farmland grading,this paper comprehensively analyzed the change in quantity and quality of cultivated land in Yangtze River Delta.This paper has studied the impact of cultivated land change on grain productive capacity of Yangtze River Delta in the next 10 years using the research methods of quantitative analysis and comparative analysis.The results showed that： 1） The quality of cultivated land in Yangtze River Delta is relatively high and its utilization grade is above the average level in China.2）A large number of cultivated land has been occupied by construction.According to the new round of land use general planning,the quantity and quality of cultivated land in Yangtze River Delta presented a declining trend during the next 10 years.The number of high utilization-grade cultivated land reduced more.3） The utilization-grade of cultivated land represented the quality of cultivated land and reflected its grain productive capacity.The standard grain total yield of Yangtze River Delta was 1036.12×108 kg.Standard area compared with the statistics area of grade 3 and grade 13 in Yangtze River Delta,the ratio of reduction or increase in cultivated land quantity was 0.1 ∶ 1,while the ratio of reduction or increase in standard grain total yield was 0.52 ∶ 1.The impact on grain productive capacity of high utilization-grade cultivated land change was bigger than the lower utilization-grade cultivated land.4） Because of requisition-higher and compensation-lower in the process of cultivated land requisition-compensation balance,the grain productive capacity of cultivated land was greatly reduced.Based on what mentioned above it could be concluded that we should guarantee the double balances and protections of both quality and quantity.Improving the grain comprehensive productive capacity was the basic strategy to ensure food security.

关 键 词：耕地变化 粮食产能 利用等别 长江三角洲地区 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]