基于CLIMEX与GARP的三叶草斑潜蝇在中国的潜在分布预测  

Potential geographic distribution of Liriomyza trifolii(Burgess) prediction in China based on CLIMEX and GARP

作　　者：刘海军[1] 陈洪俊[2] 吴佳教[1] 胡学难[1] 李镇宇[3] 

机构地区：[1]广东出入境检验检疫局,广东广州510623 [2]中国检验检疫科学研究院动植物检疫研究所,北京100029 [3]北京林业大学林学院,北京100083

出　　处：《广东农业科学》2012年第7期88-91,F0002,共5页Guangdong Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家公益性行业(农业)科研专项(200903034);广东省科技计划项目(2009B080701066);科技部国际合作项目(2011DFB30040)

摘　　要：运用适生性分析软件CLIMEX与GARP对三叶草斑潜蝇Liriomyza trifolii(Burgess)在我国的潜在分布区进行预测。CLIMEX预测结果显示,全国638个气候站点中有415个站点的生态气候指数Ei﹥0,分布于30个省(或地区),在这些地区三叶草斑潜蝇存在定殖的潜在性。同时,GARP预测认为三叶草斑潜蝇的适生区主要覆盖我国东北地区、华北地区、华中地区和华南地区。将两个软件预测结果进行叠加分析显示预测结果基本吻合。潜在适生区叠加区域位于东北地区、华北地区、华中地区以及华南的部分地区,这些地区属于三叶草斑潜蝇的高度危险区域。In this paper,CLIMEX and GARP were used to predict the potential geographic distribution of Liriomyza trifolii（Burgess） in China.The result showed by using CLIMEX that existing 415 of them in all 638 climate stations met with eco-climatic index,Ei﹥0 in the range of 30 provinces,it is possible for Liriomyza trifolii（Burgess） to establish in these regions.Meantime,prediction by using GARP revealed that potential geographic distribution area partially locates on the Northeast of China,North of China,Center of China and South of China.Overlapped the result of prediction,potential distribution from two softwares are similar,and showed possessing a potential distribution area of Liriomyza trifolii（Burgess） in China.Overlapping analysis indicates that high risk area situated on Northeast of China,North of China,Center of China and South of China.

关 键 词：三叶草斑潜蝇 CLIMEX GARP 潜在分布区预测 

分 类 号：S41[农业科学—植物保护]