新疆老龄化人口与总的医学敏感人群的预测  

The aging population and the total medical sensitive populations of Xinjiang predicting

作　　者：董亚莉[1] 热那古·塔衣尔[2] 尔西丁·买买提[2] 

机构地区：[1]新疆医科大学公共卫生学院社会医学教研室,乌鲁木齐830011 [2]新疆医科大学公共卫生学院流行病学与卫生统计学教研室,乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《新疆医科大学学报》2012年第4期548-551,共4页Journal of Xinjiang Medical University

摘　　要：目的了解新疆2010年和2020年老龄化人口与总的医学敏感人群的情况。方法利用《新疆统计年鉴》统计数据,采用灰色系统法对新疆2015年和2020年的老龄化人口与总的医学敏感人群规模进行预测。结果 2015年老龄化人口达到156.2万人,2020年预计达到168.1万人。2015年总的医学敏感人群数为580.3万人,2020年将达到612.3万人。即新疆将于2020年进入老龄化社会,总的医学敏感人群的数量快速增长,其比重将达到40%。结论该预测结果可为政府和卫生管理部门制定相关政策和措施提供理论依据及支撑。Objective To understand the aging population and medical sensitive populations was utilized situation of Xinjiang in 2010 and 2020.Methods Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook of Statistics data,the gray system method was used to predict the aging population and total medical sensitive population size in Xinjiang in 2015 and 2020.Results The aging population in 2015 reached 156.2 million,which was expected to reach 168.1 million in 2020.The total medical sensitive populations in 2015 was 580.3 million and in 2020 it would reach 612.3 million.Xinjiang would be held in 2020 entered the aging society,rapid growth was in the number of total medical sensitive populations,the proportion would reach 40%.Conclusion The results of this forecast for the government and health authorities to develop policies and measures to provide a theoretical basis and support.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 总的医学敏感人群 预测 

分 类 号：R195.3[医药卫生—卫生统计学]