基于物元模型的风光电源规划风险评价  

Risk Assessment of Wind and Photovoltaic Generation Planning Based on Matter-Element Model

作　　者：李如琦[1] 李芝荣[1] 唐林权[1] 凌武能[1] 王维志[1] 苏浩益[1] 石声峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西大学电气工程学院,广西南宁530004

出　　处：《现代电力》2012年第2期22-26,共5页Modern Electric Power

摘　　要：在电源规划设计中,为给工程投资决策者提供可靠的风险评价决策,针对风光电源规划风险建立风险评价指标体系。提出了基于物元模型的风光电源规划风险评价,该模型利用层次分析法得到主观权值,再利用熵权法对主观权值进行修正,较好地将专家经验与定量计算相结合,合理地处理了不确定性和专家判断的模糊性;利用可拓集理论的关联度函数可以将定性指标定量化,方便计算。最后通过电源规划实例进行验证分析,结果表明该模型正确可行。During the power source planning and designing,the risk evaluation index system is built for wind and photovoltaic generation planning in order to provide a reliable risk assessment decision for project investment decision-makers.A risk assessment method for wind and photovoltaic generation planning is proposed based on matter-element model,in which AHP is used to obtain the subjective weights,and they are modified through entropy method,which combining experience with quantitative calculation well and coordinating uncertainty and ambiguity of expert judgments reasonably.In addition,the association degree function of extension set theory is used to quantify the qualitative indicators.In the end,a power source planning is taken as example to verify the feasibility of proposed model.

关 键 词：风光电源规划 风险评价 物元模型 可拓集 熵权法 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]