基于IPCC SRES A1B情景下的福建省水稻生产模拟研究  

Rice production simulation under IPCC SRES A1B scenario in Fujian Province

作　　者：江敏[1] 金之庆[2] 杨慧[3] 朱朝枝[1] 林文雄[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学作物学院,福州350002 [2]江苏省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所,南京210014 [3]中国矿业大学资源与地球科学学院,徐州221008

出　　处：《中国生态农业学报》2012年第5期625-634,共10页Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture

基　　金：福建省科技计划重点项目(2010R0028);福建省教育厅自然科学基金项目(JA10112);国家自然科学青年基金项目(41001230)资助

摘　　要：选择福建省作为研究区域,根据地形特点划分了3个水稻种植区,选取17个样点及9个代表性品种,采用2006—2007年的逐日气象资料及同期区试产量资料对作物的遗传参数进行了调试;根据IPCC排放情景特别报告(SRES)中的A1B方案,利用区域气候模式PRECIS构建的气候变化情景文件与作物模型(CERES-Rice)耦合,采用雨养与灌溉两种方式,并综合考虑未来CO2浓度增加带来的直接增益效应,模拟了未来2020s及2040s气候变化对福建省水稻生产的影响。结果表明:无论是雨养方式还是灌溉方式,未来全省各稻区水稻生育期在两种情景下都将缩短,单季稻生育期天数减少幅度最大,2040s情景下达到20 d以上。未来双季稻种植区早稻与单季稻均表现为减产。2020s情景下闽东南稻区早稻减产率达到12.4%(雨养)和11.3%(灌溉);闽西北双季稻区早稻减产程度略小。单季稻区雨养水稻7.1%及灌溉水稻2.1%的减产主要来自中熟品种的负贡献。2040s减产幅度将进一步加大。与此相反,未来两种情景下双季稻区后季稻均表现为增产,但产量波动性较大。2020s情景下闽西北双季稻区灌溉后季稻产量增产达到21.0%,增产幅度大于闽东南地区的10.6%;雨养方式下后季稻增产幅度略小。2040s各稻区后季稻增产幅度将减小。未来水稻生长季的土壤水分条件将变得不如目前湿润,与之相关各稻区灌溉需要量均有所增加。总之,由于大气CO2肥效作用可在一定程度上提高未来气候变化下后季稻产量,全省水稻总产近期将有所增加,雨养与灌溉方式下分别增长0.4%及1.7%,但变化趋势是随着未来温度的增加总产将减少,负贡献主要来自于单季稻和早稻。Fujian Province was divided into three rice regions based on topographic features and rice cultivation patterns,which were double cropping rice region in Southeast Fujian,double cropping rice region in Northwest Fujian,single cropping rice regions in the mountain areas of Northwest Fujian.17 sampling sites and 9 representative rice varieties from the three regions were studied.Daily weather data for 2006-2007 and regional test yield data for the period were used to initialize CERES-Rice model parameters.Based on Special Report on Emission Scenario（SRES） on A1B scenario of IPCC,data from the PRECIS were integrated with CERES-Rice model to predict the influence of climate change on rice production in Fujian Province in the 2020s and 2040s.The simulation considered enhanced CO2-fertilization effects and two cultivation modes under rain-fed and irrigated conditions.The re-sults suggested that irrespective of rain-fed or irrigated rice,future growth durations shortened for three rice cropping regions.Growth duration of single cropping rice shortened the most（over 20 days） under the 2040s scenario.Future yields for single cropping rice and early rice dropped compared with yields under the baseline weather conditions.Yields for rain-fed and irrigated early rice in double cropping rice region in Southeast Fujian dropped by 12.4% and 11.3%,respectively,while that for early rice in double crop-ping rice region in Northwest Fujian was minimal under the 2020s scenario.Because of negative contributions of mid-season varie-ties,yields for rain-fed and irrigated single cropping rice region in mountain regions of Northwest Fujian dropped by 7.1% and 2.1%,respectively.Reductions in output of all the treatments increased under the 2040s scenario.On the contrary,yields of late rice over the same period were enhanced even though yield stability was the worst.Under the 2020s scenario,increasing yield rate of 21.0% of later rice in irrigated double cropping rice region in Northwest Fujian and 10.6% in Southeast Fujian were not

关 键 词：IPCC排放情景特别报告 区域气候模式 气候变化 CO2肥效 水稻生产 产量模拟 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S16[农业科学—农业气象学]