土地集约利用与经济发展关系的动态计量分析——以江苏省为例  

DYNAMIC ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LAND INTENSIVE UTILIZATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

作　　者：郑华伟[1] 张锐[1] 张俊凤[1] 刘友兆[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学公共管理学院,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2012年第4期412-418,共7页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71173112);江苏省国土资源科技项目(201003;201026);江苏省研究生培养创新工程项目(CXZZ11_0690)

摘　　要：在测度经济发展与土地集约利用的基础上,运用动态计量经济模型探讨经济发展与土地集约利用的相互作用。研究结果表明:(1)经济发展与土地集约利用均为一阶单整序列;(2)经济发展与土地集约利用之间存在长期均衡关系,但短期内却存在失衡,短期波动向长期均衡趋近的调整幅度达到50.26%;(3)经济发展是土地集约利用的Granger原因,而反向关系得不到实证支持;(4)土地集约利用对来自经济发展的冲击响应强烈,经济发展的冲击对土地集约利用的解释水平达到了85%,而经济发展对来自土地集约利用的冲击响应较弱,土地集约利用的冲击对经济发展的解释水平仅为2%。因此,应有效转变经济发展方式,加强土地利用监督管理,提高土地资源集约利用水平,不断提升土地资源对经济发展的保障能力。Based on measuring the degree of economic development and land intensive utilization, the paper explored the interactions between economic development and land intensive utilization by dynamic econo- metrics. The results showed that both of economic development and land intensive utilization were integrat- ed of order one. There existed equilibrium relationship between them in long term whereas things were dif- ferent in short term, and the range of short term equilibrium was close to long term equilibrium, which was 50.26 %. Grange causality test showed that economic development was the grange cause of land intensive u- tilization, but the opposite grange causality couldn＇t he proved by the empirical study. The response of land intensive utilization to economic development impulse was remarkable,and the economic development im- pulse could explain the change of land intensive utilization to a certain extent of 85%. The response of eco- nomic development to land intensive utilization impulse was weak,and the land intensive utilization impulse could explain the Change of economic development to a certain extent of only 2 %. Therefore,it was neces- sary to vigorously promote transformation of economic development mode, strengthen supervision and man- agement for land utilization, improve the land intensive utilization,and enhance the support capabilities of land resources for economic development.

关 键 词：土地集约利用 经济发展 协整检验 脉冲响应 方差分解 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]