Formation of an Interactive User-Oriented Forecasting System:Experience from Hydrological Application in Linyi,Eastern China  

作　　者：严中伟 韩佳芮 矫梅燕 陈静 叶谦 赵琳娜 涂锴 

机构地区：[1]TEA,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences [2]Research Center for Strategic Development,China Meteorological Administration (CMA) [3]China Meteorological Administration [4]National Meteorological Center,CMA [5]Consortium for Capacity Building,University of Colorado [6]Public Meteorological Center,CMA

出　　处：《Acta meteorologica Sinica》2012年第1期13-25,共13页

基　　金：Supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY200706001 and GYHY200906007)

摘　　要：Having provided an overview of the ideas of developing user-oriented interactive forecast system （UIFS） emerging in recent years, the authors proposed an idealized framework of the new-generation meteorological system, which includes the initial user-end module for configuring the forecast target, the physical predictive and downscaling components, and an incessant assessing module in association with decision-making at the user-end. A case study was carried out with a focus on applying the TIGGE （THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble; THORPEX stands for The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment） precipitation forecasts for the hydrological users in Linyi, a region richest in rivers and reservoirs in east- ern China. The preliminary results exhibited great potential of improvement in applications of weather forecasts by combining the user-end information. Although the TIGGE results provided by existing na- tional/international operating models were independent from the user-end, the case study enlightened ways of establishing an iteratively self-improving UIFS involving user-orientation throughout the forecast process.Having provided an overview of the ideas of developing user-oriented interactive forecast system （UIFS） emerging in recent years, the authors proposed an idealized framework of the new-generation meteorological system, which includes the initial user-end module for configuring the forecast target, the physical predictive and downscaling components, and an incessant assessing module in association with decision-making at the user-end. A case study was carried out with a focus on applying the TIGGE （THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble; THORPEX stands for The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment） precipitation forecasts for the hydrological users in Linyi, a region richest in rivers and reservoirs in east- ern China. The preliminary results exhibited great potential of improvement in applications of weather forecasts by combining the user-end information. Although the TIGGE results provided by existing na- tional/international operating models were independent from the user-end, the case study enlightened ways of establishing an iteratively self-improving UIFS involving user-orientation throughout the forecast process.

关 键 词：user-end information USER-ORIENTED interactive forecasting system TIGGE 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]