Formation of an Interactive User-Oriented Forecasting System:Experience from Hydrological Application in Linyi,Eastern China  被引量:1

Formation of an Interactive User-Oriented Forecasting System:Experience from Hydrological Application in Linyi,Eastern China

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作  者:严中伟 韩佳芮 矫梅燕 陈静 叶谦 赵琳娜 涂锴 

机构地区:[1]TEA,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences [2]Research Center for Strategic Development,China Meteorological Administration (CMA) [3]China Meteorological Administration [4]National Meteorological Center,CMA [5]Consortium for Capacity Building,University of Colorado [6]Public Meteorological Center,CMA

出  处:《Acta meteorologica Sinica》2012年第1期13-25,共13页

基  金:Supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY200706001 and GYHY200906007)

摘  要:Having provided an overview of the ideas of developing user-oriented interactive forecast system (UIFS) emerging in recent years, the authors proposed an idealized framework of the new-generation meteorological system, which includes the initial user-end module for configuring the forecast target, the physical predictive and downscaling components, and an incessant assessing module in association with decision-making at the user-end. A case study was carried out with a focus on applying the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble; THORPEX stands for The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) precipitation forecasts for the hydrological users in Linyi, a region richest in rivers and reservoirs in east- ern China. The preliminary results exhibited great potential of improvement in applications of weather forecasts by combining the user-end information. Although the TIGGE results provided by existing na- tional/international operating models were independent from the user-end, the case study enlightened ways of establishing an iteratively self-improving UIFS involving user-orientation throughout the forecast process.Having provided an overview of the ideas of developing user-oriented interactive forecast system (UIFS) emerging in recent years, the authors proposed an idealized framework of the new-generation meteorological system, which includes the initial user-end module for configuring the forecast target, the physical predictive and downscaling components, and an incessant assessing module in association with decision-making at the user-end. A case study was carried out with a focus on applying the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble; THORPEX stands for The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) precipitation forecasts for the hydrological users in Linyi, a region richest in rivers and reservoirs in east- ern China. The preliminary results exhibited great potential of improvement in applications of weather forecasts by combining the user-end information. Although the TIGGE results provided by existing na- tional/international operating models were independent from the user-end, the case study enlightened ways of establishing an iteratively self-improving UIFS involving user-orientation throughout the forecast process.

关 键 词:user-end information USER-ORIENTED interactive forecasting system TIGGE 

分 类 号:P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]

 

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