基于改进RPS的共因失效模型及在安全仪表系统中的应用研究  

Common Cause Failure Model Based on Improved RPS and Its Application Research in Safety Instrumented Systems

作　　者：李玉明[1] 姜巍巍[1] 王海清[2] 庄腾宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石化安全工程研究院,山东青岛266071 [2]中国石油大学(华东)机电工程学院,山东青岛266555

出　　处：《安全、健康和环境》2012年第4期1-5,18,共6页Safety Health & Environment

摘　　要：基于安全仪表系统共因失效机理的定性分析,在单一冲击下的RPS模型基础上,以泊松分布作为冲击的先验分布,建立了多冲击下考虑共因失效的安全仪表系统可靠性模型;采用基于专家经验和估计的方法,对模型参数进行估计;并通过定量分析确定出影响系统共因失效的最大冲击因子,为降低系统共因失效对可靠性的影响提供辅助决策支持。将改进的多冲击RPS模型的可靠性分析结果与β模型和PDS模型进行比较,验证了该模型的工程准确性。Based on qualitative analysis of common cause failure mechanism for safety instrumented systems, as well as RPS model under single impact, reliability model of safety instrumented system was established with considering common cause under multi-impact, in which ＂Poisson Distribution＂ was taken as the impact of prior distribution. Model parameters were estimated on the basis of expert experience and matrix evaluation, and the maximum impact factor which impacted common cause failure of system was determined by quantitative analysis, so it could provide assisted decision support for reducing impact of system common cause failure on reliability. The engineering accuracy of the model was verified by comparing the reliability analysis results of improved multi-impact RPS model with β model and PDS model.

关 键 词：安全仪表系统 共因失效 冲击因子 β模型 随机概率冲击模型 失效概率 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]