基于遥感技术的近40a来敦德冰川变化和气候变化的关系研究  

Relation between Climate Change and Dunde Glacier Retreat Studied by Using Remote Sensing Data,1970-2010

作　　者：田洪阵[1,2] 杨太保[1,2] 刘沁萍[2] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源环境学院冰川与生态地理研究所,甘肃兰州730000 [2]兰州大学资源环境学院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2012年第2期277-283,共7页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40871057);兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(lzujbky-2012-221)资助

摘　　要：从1970、1990、2000年和2010年4个时段的MSS、TM、ETM影像中提取了敦德冰川的边界,并结合距敦德冰川较近的托勒、大柴旦和德令哈3个气象站点的1957-2010年年降水量数据、年平均气温和夏季平均气温(6-8月)数据进行分析,对近40a来敦德冰川变化和气候变化的关系进行了研究.结果表明:近40a来的敦德冰川处在持续退缩状态;最近几十年敦德冰川退缩有相对加速之势;冰川在退缩过程中不断分解,部分分解后的小面积冰川融化消失.近半个世纪以来该区的气候增温趋势较明显,降水虽有少量增加,但是趋势却不明显.冰川变化与气候变化的关系表现为温度的升高是敦德冰川退缩的主要原因.The Dunde Glacier is the largest glacier in the Qilian Mountains.In this paper,the change of the Dunde Glacier and trends of precipitation and air temperature are analyzed.Trend analysis of air temperatures in the period from 1957 to 2010 at the three meteorological stations found a pronounced temperature increasing.With regard to precipitation,there was a small increase on average,but no clear trend can be seen.The glacier outlines in 1970 were delineated manually from two Landsat MSS scenes and those in 1990,2000 and 2010 were delineated with semi-automated way using band TM3/TM5 ratio images of Landsat TM or ETM scenes.The shrinkage rate in glacierized extent was 10.71% between 1970 and 2010.A rapid and accelerating shrinkage was also detected in the last decade because of temperature rising.Given the temperature increase in the future,based on IPCC,the glaciers in this region will continue to retreat.In a short-term,glacier retreat and lose mass result in a temporary increase in runoff,however,glacier ablation contribution to runoff will decrease in a long-term,and then serious shortage of water resources will take place.

关 键 词：祁连山 敦德冰川 冰川退缩 气候变化 遥感 

分 类 号：P343.6[天文地球—水文科学]