林业经济发展与气候因素的因果关系  

Causality Between Forestry Economic Development and Climate Factors in China

作　　者：向中华[1] 曾胜[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学,成都610031 [2]重庆工商大学

出　　处：《东北林业大学学报》2012年第4期110-112,共3页Journal of Northeast Forestry University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目资助(11BJY058)

摘　　要：利用格兰杰因果检验,从数理关系角度定量分析了林业经济发展与平均气温、降水量、湿度、日照时数等气候因素之间的因果关系。结果表明:林业生产总值与降水量、气温、湿度之间,具有单向因果关系;林业生产总值与日照时数之间,因果关系不明显。降水量与湿度之间、湿度与气温之间,具有单向因果关系;气温与日照时数之间,具有双向因果关系;降水量与气温之间、降水量与日照时数之间、湿度与日照时数之间,不具有因果关系。A study was conducted to discuss the causality between forestry economic development and climate factors such as average air temperature,precipitation,air moisture and sunshine hours through the Granger causality test.Results show that there is a unidirectional causality from total output value of forestry to precipitation,temperature and moisture;however,no obvious relationship was observed between total output value of forestry and sunshine hours.There is unidirectional causality from precipitation to moisture and from moisture to temperature;there is bidirectional causality from temperature to sunshine hours;no obvious causal connection were found between precipitation and temperature,precipitation and sunshine hours,as well as air moisture and sunshine hours.

关 键 词：林业经济 森林气候因素 因果关系 格兰杰因果检验 

分 类 号：S716.3[农业科学—林学] F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]