实物期权在城市轨道交通PPP项目决策中的应用  

Real Option for Urban Rapid Rail Transit PPP Project

作　　者：梁伟[1] 王守清[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学建设管理系,北京100084

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2012年第2期23-27,共5页Journal of Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70731160634)

摘　　要：根据北京地铁4号线PPP项目遇到的实际问题构建模型,将实物期权理论引入解决车站停车场建设规模决策的问题。通过设计Excel表计算引入实物期权后不同方案的期望NPV,既解决了一般期权定价困难的问题,又将期权理论与PPP项目紧密结合,发现实物期权对于PPP项目决策过程的优化起到了非常明显的作用。特别是处理不确定性给PPP项目的谈判、决策、执行过程造成困难时,实物期权能够发挥更大的作用,可以作为决策者改善决策合理性的手段,也可以为公私双方化解核心矛盾取得一致意见提供有效帮助。An excel calculation model was built according to the real case,and then the building scale decision making problem is solved with real option theory.The model calculates the expected NPV of different ways of building with real option embed,avoiding the trouble of option pricing.The result shows that real option can significantly optimize the decision making process of PPP projects.Dealing with the problems caused by uncertainty in the process of negotiation,decision making and execution in a PPP project,it can be more useful as it not only offers a way to improve the rationality of a decision,but also helps both the private and the public sector to come up with a same point of view.

关 键 词：实物期权 PPP项目 城市轨道交通 不确定性 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济] U239[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]