灰色理论在矿井涌水量预测中的应用  

Application of gray theory in the prediction of coal mine water discharge

作　　者：褚程程[1] 杨滨滨[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学资源与地球科学学院,江苏徐州221008

出　　处：《煤田地质与勘探》2012年第2期55-58,共4页Coal Geology & Exploration

基　　金：国家大学生创新性实验计划项目(091029017)

摘　　要：运用灰色理论建立煤矿涌水量预测的GM(1,1)模型,在某矿井太原组工作面涌水量资料的基础上,通过增加观测频率和数据密度的方法对模型进行修正,使精度提高到96.26%。将模型预测值与实际数据比较,证明所建立模型较为可靠。结合其实际的水文地质条件及排水能力,设定该工作面的上灾变阈值为15 m3/min,得出工作面的涌水量大小、灾变时间和数值的预测值,为工作面安全开采和监管提供了数据支持。GM（1,I） model was built up by gray theory to predict coal mine water discharge. Based on the floor water in- rush data of a coal mine working face in Taiyuan Formation, the model accuracy was improved to 96.26 percent by in- creasing fxequency of observation and data density. The comparison of forecast data and actual data indicated that the model was reliable. In order to strengthen the safety and supervision of the working face, a cap of abnormal data was set up with actual hydrogeological conditions and the drainage ability to obtain the prediction of water inflow, abnormal time and amount.

关 键 词：灰色理论 涌水量预测 GM(1 1)模型 上灾变阈值 

分 类 号：P641.4[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]