太阳黑子活动与新疆强震活动的关系  

RELATION BETWEEN SUNSPOT ACTIVITY AND STRONG EARTHQUAKES OCCURRED IN XINJIANG

作　　者：杨马陵[1] 塔青 

机构地区：[1]广东省地震局,广东广州510070 [2]西藏自治区地震局,西藏拉萨850000

出　　处：《内陆地震》2012年第1期10-16,共7页Inland Earthquake

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划(2008BAC38B03-01)

摘　　要：使用1900年以来的太阳黑子数据,统计分析了其与新疆地区MS≥6.6强震的关系。结果显示:新疆地区69%的MS≥6.6和86%的MS≥7的地震,发生在黑子数月均值≤35的时段内。以黑子数月均值≤20和≤35的时段作为MS≥6.6强震的预测指标,报准率分别为71%和64%;以黑子数月均值≤35的时段作为MS≥6.6强震的预测指标,报准率为69%。R值评分检验表明,上述预测指标是有效的。最后使用这些统计关系和指标对新疆未来几年发生强震的可能性作了估计。The relation between sunspot activity and MS≥6.6 earthquakes occurred in Xinjiang from 1900 to 2010 was studied with statistics.The results showed that 69% MS≥6.6 earthquakes and 86% MS≥7 earthquakes occurred during sunspot monthly average ≤35.Using sunspot monthly average ≤20 and ≤35 as prediction index of MS≥6.6 earthquakes,the accuracy rate respectively is 71% and 64%.Using sunspot monthly average≤35 as the prediction index of MS≥6.6 earthquakes,the accuracy rate is 69%.The test of R-value indicated that the above prediction indexes are effective.Finally,the statistics relation and prediction indexes were used to estimate the possibility of strong earthquakes in Xinjiang next few years.

关 键 词：太阳黑子活动 强震 统计关系 预测指标 R值评分 新疆 

分 类 号：P315.72[天文地球—地震学]