基于情景规划的跨国油气投资战略性风险评价  

Strategic risk evaluation of overseas oil and gas investment based on scenario planning

作　　者：汪东进[1,2] 李秀生[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学石油工程学院,北京102249 [2]中国石油天然气集团公司,北京100007

出　　处：《中国石油大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第2期191-195,共5页Journal of China University of Petroleum(Edition of Natural Science)

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目'中国与全球油气资源重点区域合作研究'(09JZD0038)

摘　　要：基于中国石油企业跨国油气投资的特点,确定决策风险、地缘政治风险、竞争风险、运营风险、社会责任风险等5种影响跨国油气投资战略性风险的关键因素,并引入情景规划方法对战略性风险进行情景假设,构建跨国油气投资战略性风险的评价模型。所建模型克服传统风险评价方法对风险随机选择与评价的不足,能根据模拟情境,重点评价重要影响的战略性风险及其风险状态,使决策者能更早地预防风险。研究成果对于当前复杂多变的环境下更好地防范和应对跨国油气投资风险具有重要的战略意义。Based on the characteristics of Chinese transnational investment on oil and gas,five key contributing factors of strategic risk including decision-making risk,geopolitical risk,competitive risk,operational risk and social responsibility risk were put forward.And a strategic risk evaluation model of transnational investment on oil and gas was developed through scenario planning theory.This model overcomes the shortcomings of random selection and evaluation of the traditional risk assessment method,which focuses on risk factors of important strategic risks based on simulated situations.So it makes investors prevent risks early.These have important strategic sense for better prevention and response to the risk of transactional investment on oil and gas.

关 键 词：跨国 油气 投资 战略性风险 评价模型 情景规划 

分 类 号：F032.2[经济管理—政治经济学]