基于相似预报法的宁夏雷电潜势预报业务系统  

Operational System of Thunder/Lightning Potential Forecasting Based on Similar Deviation for Ningxia

作　　者：纪晓玲[1,2,3] 胡文东[1] 穆建华 杨侃 陈晓娟 辛尧胜 马筛艳 

机构地区：[1]宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室,银川750002 [2]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081 [3]宁夏气象台,银川750002

出　　处：《气象科技》2012年第2期304-309,共6页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：中国气象局气象技术集成应用项目"基于MICAPS系统的宁夏中短期预报方法集成"(CMAJG2011M56);"宁夏短临灾害天气监测预警技术集成"(CMAGJ 2012M53)";中国气象局新技术推广项目"相似离度法在宁夏雷电潜势预报方法中的研究应用"(CMATG2008Y11)资助

摘　　要：以宁夏雷暴、闪电观测资料和ECMWF、T213数值预报产品为基础,采用VB、VC语言和MS SQL Server数据库等编程技术,研制开发了基于相似预报法的宁夏雷电潜势预报业务系统。系统在客观形势相似和影响系统判别的基础上进行物理量相似离度分析,可提供0～168h环流形势和物理量相似预报结果,并以相似离度最小的前10(20)个最佳相似个例中的一个作为预报蓝本,以人机交互的方式完成0～12h雷电潜势预报的制作与分发,增强了雷电潜势预报的客观化和自动化;实现了历史雷电数据的查询、统计、输出、保存、添加入库及闪电信息的统计显示等功能,成为宁夏雷电潜势预报制作发布的主要工作平台。The operational system for thunder/lightning potential forecasting based on similar deviation is established by using VB and VC programming languages and MS SQL Server Database,on the basis of the thunder/lightning observation data of Ningxia and the forecasting products of ECMWF and T213.This operational system can give a similar discrimination of physical factors based on the objectively analogue circulation and affecting system automatic recognition.It can produce the forecasting results of circulation patterns and physical quantities in the coming 168 hours,in which the first 10/20 cases with minimum similar deviation were used as the ＂blueprint＂ for forecasting;and the system can also accomplish the making and distribution of thunder/lightning potential forecasting products by human-machine interaction,which enhances the objectivity and automation of the thunder/lightning potential forecasting system.Moreover,it has the functions of thunder/lightning data querying,calculating,outputting,saving,loading,displaying,and so on.This system has become the main operational platform for the making and distribution of thunder/lightning potential forecasting in Ningxia.

关 键 词：相似预报法 雷电潜势预报 业务系统 数据库 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]