基于灰色关联度法的大坝风险后果综合评价  

Dam Risk Consequences Comprehensive Evaluation Model Based on the Method of Gray Correlation

作　　者：孙玮玮[1] 李雷[1] 郑昊尧[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院大坝安全与管理研究所,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《人民黄河》2012年第4期102-104,共3页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50909066);"十一五"国家科技支撑计划项目(Gs710001);南京水利科学研究院青年基金资助项目(Yy710001;Y711002);江苏省水利科技项目(2010027)

摘　　要：大坝风险后果综合评价涉及众多评价因子,各因子间存在一定的相关性。将灰色关联度法应用于江西省5座水库大坝风险后果的综合评价中,应用层次分析法计算水库溃坝生命损失、经济损失及社会环境影响等因子的权重,根据关联度确定大坝风险后果等级并对其进行排序。结果表明,若发生溃坝事件,5座水库大坝溃坝后果均十分严重,属特别重大事故。灰色关联度法能够较客观地反映大坝风险后果的严重程度,具有计算简便、推理过程严密等特点。Dam risk consequences comprehensive evaluation involves many evaluation factors and it exists a certain relevance among them.Taking five reservoirs in Jiangxi Province for an example,AHP was applied to calculate the weight of the life loss,economic loss and environmental impact after dam failure.The level of dam risk consequences was determined by correlation and the reservoirs were sorted.The result shows that,it＇s a particularly serious accident if dam failure happen,these reservoirs will be damaged seriously.It suggests that grey correlation method can reflect dam risk consequence severity degree objectively from the research.

关 键 词：大坝风险后果 综合评价 灰色关联度法 层次分析法 

分 类 号：TV64[水利工程—水利水电工程] X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]