中国固定资产投资的影响因素分析  

Chinese Investment in Fixed Assets of the Influence Factors Analysis

作　　者：崔顺伟[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]财政部财政科学研究所博士后流动站,北京100142 [2]天津外国语大学国际商学院,天津300204

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2012年第5期86-89,共4页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

摘　　要：本文以古典投资理论、加速数理论、预期利润理论以及政治周期理论等相关投资理论为基础,分析了投资活动的决定因素,并结合我国实际建立了一个包括国民产出、利润率、利率和中央政府换届等多个解释变量的多元线性回归模型。本文采用1980-2009年期间中国的固定资产投资总额等相关数据,对各种投资理论假说进行实证检验。回归结果证实了投资与产出之间存在正相关关系,支持投资的加速数假说;估计结果还表明投资与利润率之间存在正相关关系,证实了投资的预期利润假说;但实际利率和中央领导换届这两个解释变量均未通过显著性检验。研究还发现我国的投资富有产出弹性远大于利润率弹性,最后就政府调节投资水平给出相应的政策含义。The present paper examines the determinants of investment activity in China over the period 1980-2009 according to various theories of investment.It tests for the factors that presumably influece China＇s investment activity,with a multiple linear regression model incorporation various factors that presumably influence investment activity in China,based on alternative investment theories.The results confirm that the anticipated positive relationship between investment and output,investment and profitability,while two other explanatory variables i.e.,the real interest rate and central government leadership elcetion both couldn＇t pass the test of significance.Finally,the paper estimates investment elasticities with respect to the various factors,and proposes some policy suggestions concerning the adjustment of investment activity in China.

关 键 词：固定资产 资产投资 投资利率 投资经济 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]