气候暖干化对西北四省(区)农业种植结构的影响及调整方案  

Influence of Climate Change on Agricultural Planting Structure in Shaanxi,Gansu,Ningxia and Qinghai in Northwest China and the Adjustment Scheme

作　　者：邓振镛[1] 张强[2] 赵红岩[3] 王润元[1] 史志娟[2] 方建刚[4] 李林[5] 李艳春 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省(中国气象局)干旱气候变化与减灾重点(开放)实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [2]甘肃省气象局,甘肃兰州730020 [3]西北区域气候中心,甘肃兰州730020 [4]陕西省气候中心,陕西西安710015 [5]青海省气候中心,青海西宁810001 [6]宁夏自治区气候中心,宁夏银川750001

出　　处：《高原气象》2012年第2期498-503,共6页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家重大科学研究计划项目(2012CB955304);国家科技部公益行业专项(GYHY200806021;GYHY201106029);中国气象局专项"西北地区气候变化评估报告";国家自然科学基金重点项目(40830957)共同资助

摘　　要：利用陕、甘、宁、青四省(区)141个气象站1961-2008年的气象要素值计算和分析得出,暖干化是西北四省(区)现代气候变化的基本特征。年平均气温表现为一致的增温趋势,每10年增温0.27℃,1996年是突变年。年降水量自1961年以来呈持续下降趋势,1986年是转折年,1987-2008年年平均降水量比1961-1986年平均减少20～40mm。以黄河为界,黄河以东降水量呈减少趋势,每10年减少10～40mm;黄河以西呈增多趋势,每10年增加10mm左右,减少的幅度明显高于增加的幅度。进入21世纪,气候暖干化的势头有所减缓。在分析不同区域自然资源特点和气候暖干化及其对农作物影响特征的基础上,运用系统规划理论,采用气候生态相似原理,提出了陕、甘、宁、青四省(区)13个不同地域农业种植结构调整方案。为了加快农业结构调整进程,使农业结构调整方案收到明显的生态、社会和经济效益,提出了四个方面的保障措施。Based on the meteorological data at 141 weather stations in Shaanxi,Gansu,Ningxia and Qinghai,the characteristics of climate change are analyzed.The result shows that,the increasing temperature in these regions is the main trend and the annual mean temperature increases 0.27 ℃·（10 a）-1 and the abrupt point is in 1996.The annual precipitation had decreased since 1961 and the abrupt point was in 1986.The mean annual precipitation from 1987 to 2008 was less 20~40 mm than that from 1961 to 1986.The annual precipitation in the region of eastern Yellow River was decreased 10~ 40 mm·（10 a）-1 and increased 10 mm·（10 a）-1 in the region of western Yellow River.It showed that decrease trend was more obviously than the increase.The trend of climate turning dry and warm became weak in 21st century.Based on the characteristics of nature resource in different regions and the impact of climate change on crops,the adjustment scheme were provided for 13 regions in Shaanxi,Gansu,Ningxia and Qinghai with the method of systematic planning theory and climate ecological similar principles.In order to promote agriculture structure adjustment and get obvious ecological social and economic benefits,four safeguard measures were proposed.

关 键 词：气候暖干化 农业种植结构 气温变化 降水变化 

分 类 号：S16[农业科学—农业气象学]