RegCM3_IAP9L-AGCM对中国跨季度短期气候预测的回报试验研究  

Hindcast experiment of extraseasonal short-term summer climate prediction over China with RegCM3_IAP9L-AGCM

作　　者：鞠丽霞[1] 郎咸梅[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所气候变化研究中心,北京100029 [2]中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心,北京100029

出　　处：《气象学报》2012年第2期244-252,共9页Acta Meteorologica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2009CB421407);公益性(气象)行业专项(GYHY201006022);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-Q11-03);国家自然科学基金(40805030);香港王宽诚教育基金会

摘　　要：将区域气候模式RegCM3与中国科学院大气物理研究所全球大气环流模式IAP9L-AGCM进行单向嵌套,建立嵌套区域气候模式RegCM3_IAP9L-AGCM,并利用该嵌套模式对1982—2001年中国夏季短期气候进行了跨季度集合回报试验。结果表明,RegCM3_IAP9L-AGCM对高空气候变量(500hPa位势高度场、200和850hPa纬向风场)的回报结果与实况距平相关系数(ACC)基本为正,其回报效果好于单独使用IAP9L-AGCM的结果。除850hPa纬向风场外,其他两个变量场回报与实况正相关的区域基本呈纬向带状分布且通过90%信度检验。在中国大部分地区(除长江下游、东北北部和西北北部外),嵌套区域气候模式回报的降水距平百分率与实况基本为正相关。RegCM3_IAP9L-AGCM和IAP9L-AGCM对中国不同区域的夏季降水回报效果不同,前者对华南降水的回报效果明显好于后者。The regional climate model RegCM3 has been one-way nested into IAPgL-AGCM, the nine-level atmospheric general circulation model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, to perform a 20 year （1982 - 2001） hindcast experiment on extraseaonal short-term prediction of China summer climate. The nested prediction system is referred to as RegCM3_IAPgL-AGCM in this paper. The results show that hindcasted climate fields such as 500 hPa geopotential height, 200 and 850 hPa zonal winds from RegCM3_IAP9L-AGCM have positive anomaly correlation coefficients （ACC） with the ob- servations, and are better than those from the stand-alone IAPgL-AGCM. Except for the 850 hPa wind field, the positive ACC of the other two fields with observations both pass the 900/6o confidence level and display a zonal distribution. The results indi- cate that the positive correlation of summer precipitation anomaly percentage between the nested prediction system and observa- tions covers most parts of China except for downstream of the Yangtze River and north of Northeast and Northwest China. The nested prediction system and the IAPgL-AGCM exhibit different hindcast skills over different regions of China, and the former demonstrates a higher skill over South China than the latter in predicting the summer precipitation.

关 键 词：REGCM3 嵌套区域气候模式 回报试验 跨季度短期气候预测 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P435