江淮梅雨期各类降水的变化分析  

Analysis of all Kinds of Precipitation Characteristics over the Yangtzg-Huaihe River Valley

作　　者：武芳[1] 刘海文[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程学院大气科学学院,四川成都610225 [2]重庆市气象局气象科研所,重庆401147

出　　处：《成都信息工程学院学报》2012年第1期83-88,共6页Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology

基　　金：山西省科技厅攻关资助项目(20100311131);成都信息工程学院科研基金(KYTZ201012)对本文的资助

摘　　要：为了揭示江淮梅雨降水量的长期变化规律,利用1957~2008年中国740站逐日降水资料,使用线性倾向估计、小波分析等方法,在将日降水划分为小雨、中雨、大雨、暴雨和大暴雨5类降水的基础上,重点分析了江淮梅雨期间上述5类降水的趋势变化特征,结论如下：暴雨频率、暴雨强度是决定江淮梅雨降水多寡的主要内在因子;小雨、中雨的频率及其对梅雨量的贡献率的趋势变化在1970年代中期发生了显著的年代际变化,即由1970年代中期前的显著上升趋势改变为其后的显著下降趋势;大雨及其以上等级降水的频率、贡献率的趋势变化特征并不显著。Based on the precipitation data of 740 stations in china during 1957~2008,the long-term changes of all kinds of precipitation over Yangtzg-Huaihe River Vally during Meiyu period are analyzed by means of linear trend estimation and moving average（MA） method.It is found that the long-term trend characteristics of Meiyu rainfall were quite different from that of summer precipitation in the North China and the Yangtze River Basin.The results can be generalized as follows： the amount of Meiyu rainfall is determined by the frequency and intensity of torrential rain;there is remarkable sudden change of the frequency and contribution rate of light rain and moderate rain around mid 1970s,so does the frequency and contribution of light rain and moderate rain to Meiyu precipitation transformation from remarkable linear trend of increase to linear trend of decrease around mid 1970s can be seen;the frequency and contribution rate of heavy rain and other stronger rain increase slightly in the past 52 years.

关 键 词：大气科学 气候变化 江淮梅雨 降水频率 降水贡献率 

分 类 号：P463.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]