改进灰预测方法在工程项目管理中的应用  

On application of improved grey prediction method in management of engineering programs

作　　者：白小宇 赵丽娜 

机构地区：[1]深圳市地铁集团有限公司,广东深圳518026 [2]深圳市广田装饰集团股份有限公司,广东深圳518038

出　　处：《山西建筑》2012年第15期275-276,共2页Shanxi Architecture

摘　　要：利用误差最小原则,引入微粒群算法对GM(1,1)模型预测精度进行了优化,将改进后的模型应用到工程管理中,对工程投资与进度进行预测与分析,通过与实际数据以及经典灰预测模型预测结果的比较可知,改进的灰预测模型能够明显的提高预测精度,预测结果与实际数据吻合的比较好。The study undertakes the optimization of GM（1,1） formwork’s prediction accuracy by using the particle swarm optimization and the error minimum principle,applies the improved formwork in the engineering management,predicts and analyzes the engineering investment and the progress,and discloses by the comparison with the factual data and the typical grey prediction formwork’s prediction accuracy that the improved grey-prediction model can improve the prediction accuracy obviously and the prediction result is close to the factual data.

关 键 词：灰预测 微粒群算法 工程管理 

分 类 号：TU712.1[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]