广西大石山区干旱灾害模糊风险评估与区划研究  

Drought disaster fuzzy risk assessment and compartment research in Dashi-shan region of Guangxi province

作　　者：康永辉[1,2] 解建仓[1] 肖飞鹏[3] 黄伟军[3] 杨云川[4] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学水利水电学院,陕西西安710048 [2]广西壮族自治区水利电力勘测设计研究院,广西南宁530023 [3]广西水利电力职业技术学院,广西南宁530023 [4]中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川成都610041

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第4期223-229,共7页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：广西高校优秀人才资助计划项目(桂教人[2009]62号)

摘　　要：【目的】采用模糊信息扩散法对广西大石山区干旱灾害风险进行评估与区划,为该区干旱灾害风险管理提供参考。【方法】在信息不完备情况下,采用能表达概率估计模糊不确定性的信息扩散法,在不假定概率分布的情况下,对广西大石山区农业干旱灾害损失风险及因旱人饮困难风险进行评估,绘制其区划图,并将分析结果与近20年的实际干旱灾害发生情况进行比对。【结果】基于信息扩散法的广西大石山区干旱灾害风险评估结果与近20年历史实际干旱灾害调查结果基本吻合,表明用信息扩散法进行区域干旱风险评估是可行的。【结论】在信息不完备的条件下,用模糊信息扩散法进行干旱灾害风险评价和区划可得到更为准确的结果。【Objective】 Fuzzy informational diffusion method was used to carry out the assessment and regionalization for drought disaster risk of Dashi-shan region in Guangxi province to provide more reference for the drought disaster risk.【Method】 Under the case of incomplete information,the informational diffusion method which can express the fuzzy uncertainty of probability estimates is used to assess the agricultural and people’s drink difficulty,drought risks and draw zoning map of the Dashi-shan region in Guangxi province.Without assuming the probability distribution in advance,the calculation results are taken to compare with the actual history drought disaster investigating results of the past 20 years.【Result】 The drought disaster risk assessment results of Dashi-shan region in Guangxi province based on information diffusion method are basically consistent with the actual history drought disaster investigating situation of the past 20 years,which shows that the informational diffusion method to regional drought risk assessment is feasible.【Conclusion】 Under the condition of incomplete information,fuzzy informational diffusion method for the drought disaster risk assessment and regionalization can obtain more accurate results.

关 键 词：风险管理 信息扩散 风险评估 区划 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护] P338.6[天文地球—水文科学]