基于马尔科夫的动态交通流演化模型及应用  

Modeling of dynamic traffic flow evolution based on Markov chain and its application

作　　者：肖海燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖北第二师范学院数学与数量经济学院,湖北武汉430205

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2012年第2期255-258,共4页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

摘　　要：以实时控制和诱导为目的的短时交通流预测作为研究分析对象,构造出刻画随机用户平衡演化过程的基于马尔科夫过程的动态,分析了它的稳定性,并给出一个算例进一步验证了其稳定性.将马尔科夫链引入到交通流演化动态中,通过简单的算例,对道路中的交通流进行分析和预测,进而对车辆进行诱导,从而达到交通管理的目的.Taking the short-term traffic flow prediction with real-time traffic control and route guidance as the research object, the stochastic user equilibrium dynamic state is constructed based on the Markov process. Then its stability is analyzed; and an example is given to verify the stability. Markov chain is introduced to the traffic evolution dynamics, in which the choice probability meets Markov chain. We construct a Markov process of evolutionary dynamic, which is short-term traffic flow forecasting in real-time control.

关 键 词：交通诱导 马尔科夫链 演化动态 转移矩阵 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]