东北稻作系统对气候变暖的实际响应与适应  

Actual Responses and Adaptations of Rice Cropping System to Global Warming in Northeast China

作　　者：张卫建[1,2] 陈金[2] 徐志宇[3] 陈长青[2] 邓艾兴[1] 钱春荣[2] 董文军[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院作物科学研究所/农业部作物生理生态重点实验室,北京100081 [2]南京农业大学应用生态研究所,南京210095 [3]中国农业大学农学与生物技术学院,北京100193

出　　处：《中国农业科学》2012年第7期1265-1273,共9页Scientia Agricultura Sinica

基　　金：国家"973"计划(2010CB951501);"十二五"国家科技支撑计划(2011BAD16B14);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项;国家自然科学基金(30771278)

摘　　要：【目的】明确气候变暖对作物生产的实际影响,降低对未来粮食安全预测的不确定性。【方法】依据东北水稻生产和气候变化的长期观测数据,并结合田间开放式增温试验(free air temperature increase,FATI),系统研究稻作系统对气候变暖的实际响应与适应。【结果】历史数据分析发现,近几十年来东北水稻单产与其生长季的气温呈明显递增趋势,相关显著,但与降水量变化相关不显著。理论推算表明,水稻生长季最低气温升高1℃,水稻单产可提高6.0%以上。田间试验发现,在目前的气温背景下,水稻冠层气温升高1℃,单产可提高10%左右。近四十年来东北水稻新品种的生育期每10年约延长3 d,与近二十年来田间观测到的水稻实际生育期延长幅度基本一致,达5 d左右;与1970年相比,2010年黑龙江省的水稻种植面积扩大了24倍,种植重心向北位移了近110 km,与东北水稻生长季≥10℃有效积温带北移的幅度一致。【结论】气候变暖对东北水稻的直接增产效应显著,稻作系统可以通过品种改良、栽培改进和区域调整等策略来逐步适应气候变化的趋势。在应对气候变化的稻作制度调整上,应充分挖掘增温的增产效应及作物系统的适应潜力,调整时机和幅度应适当迟后于预测的气候变化进程。在气候变暖的大趋势下,要注意因水稻生育期延长和种植区域北扩而可能遭遇的低温冷害等极端性天气。【Objective】A better understanding of global warming impacts on grain production can reduce the uncertainties of future food security projection.Rice is one of the most important grain crops in the world.Northeast China is the main region of rice cropping and the greatest warming area in China.It is significant and necessary to learn the potential impacts of warming on rice production in Northeast China for ensuring the future food security.【Method】Based on historical data analysis and three-year field warming experiment（Free air temperature increase,FATI）,the actual responses and adaptations of rice cropping system to warming were investigated in Northeast China.【Result】The results showed that there were similar increasing trends between air temperature during rice cropping season and rice yield over the past decades.Significant positive relationship was found between nighttime increment and rice yield enhancement,while no significant relationship was found between rice yield and precipitation.According to the relationship between climate anomaly and rice yield anomaly over the last thirty years,1℃ increment in daily minimum temperature during rice cropping season might increase rice yield by about 6.0%.Meanwhile,field experiments showed that further 1℃ warming at nighttime might enhance rice yield by about 10.0% in future.The entire growth period of new variety approved and released in different times has been prolonged by about 3.0 d？10a-1 during the past fifty years,which is confirmed by the actual prolonging of rice growth period by 5.0 day observed in field during the last twenty years.Rice sown area in Heilongjiang province increased about 24 times in 2010 than 1970,and the cropping centre moved northward about by 110 km during the past forty years.Similar spatial change was found in ≥10℃ accumulated temperature during rice cropping season over the same years in Northeast.【Conclusion】 The above evidences indicate that warming has contributed a great to the historical increment

关 键 词：全球变暖 粮食安全 中国东北 水稻单产 应对策略 

分 类 号：S511[农业科学—作物学]