工业化中政府作用的动态经济学分析  

Dynamic Economic Analysis of the Government Role in the Industrialization Process

作　　者：肖翔[1] 董香书[2] 

机构地区：[1]中共中央党校研究生院 [2]北京大学经济学院财政系

出　　处：《经济评论》2012年第3期39-48,共10页Economic Review

基　　金：中国社会科学院当代中国研究所武力研究员主持的国家社科基金项目"中国产业结构演变中的大国因素研究(1949-2010)"(批准文号11BJ015)资助

摘　　要：中国工业化进程中政府起到了重要作用。本文立足于新中国工业化历程,在动态经济学框架内,讨论政府通过对劳动密集型产业征税而对资本密集型产业扶持来推动工业化的问题。在理论模型的基础上,通过数值模拟,分析了稳态下税率与各经济部门的资本、产出以及社会总资本、总产出存在的倒"U"型关系,并且对税率与政府税收之间的倒"U"型关系进行了讨论。本文认为政府对劳动密集型产业过度提取不仅不利于劳动密集型产业发展,也不利于经济总量与政府税收的增长,甚至不利于资本密集型产业的可持续增长。本研究与结论部分解释了历史上我国优先发展重工业难以维系的原因,并部分揭示了当前亟需调整经济结构的内在机理。Government played a pivotal role in the process of industrialization after the foundation of People＇ s Republic of China. Based on the historical process of the industrialization, this paper construct of dynamic economic model, in which government taxes the labor intensified industry and subsidies the capital intensified industry in order to intervene the structure change of the industry to boost the industrialization. In numerical simulation, we find that the relationships between tax rate and output in different sectors, capital in different sectors, total capital and total output in steady state are better described as inverse U - shape. In addition, we also find that the relationship between tax rate and government tax income in steady state can also be described as the inverse U - shape. Government＇s excess subsidy of the capital intensified industry would have adverse impact on the development of labor intensified industry, economic growth and government tax income. It also even would be harmful to the sustainable development of the capital intensified industry. The theoretical model partly explains the reason why the priority development of heavy industry was not able to sustain in Chinese history, and also partly explains the intrinsic mechanism of government＇s adjusting the current economic structure.

关 键 词：政府 工业化 经济增长 动态经济学 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济] F224