中国区域经济增长趋同及其空间效应分解--基于SUR-空间计量经济学分析  

Research on the Decomposition of Spatial Effects of China's Regional Economic Growth Convergence:Based on the SUR-Spatial Econometrics

作　　者：陈得文[1] 陶良虎[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,211106 [2]武汉理工大学经济学院,430070

出　　处：《经济评论》2012年第3期49-56,共8页Economic Review

摘　　要：考虑经济增长的阶段性特征和空间效应是分析我国区域经济问题的关键。本文运用SUR模型衡量了经济增长的阶段性特点,运用修正后的G统计量和空间滞后模型分析了空间效应对区域经济增长趋同的影响,并通过分解空间结构矩阵分析了不同区域间的空间效应关系。结果表明:我国区域空间存在着显著的中心、次级和外围空间俱乐部趋同效应,各趋同俱乐部之间存在着不同水平的空间依赖关系,中心区域和次级区域之间的空间依赖性比较突出,外围区域市场区效应影响有限,次级区域和外围区域之间的空间依赖性以负作用为主。因此,应进一步提高我国区域发展中的空间效应,尤其是对于次级区域和外围区域而言,在制定区域发展战略中应予以足够重视。It is the key to analyze region problem that considering characteristics of stage and spatial correlation in China. This paper uses SUR model, correction G statistic and spatial lags model to measure the stage and spatial effects between China＇ s regions, and then analyze the spatial effects among different regions by way of decomposing the spatial structure matrix. It indicates that there are significant core, sub and periphery clubs convergence, and different clubs have different spatial dependence, such as the spatial dependence between coreregions and subregions is significant, the market effects between periphery regions is limited, and the spatial dependence between subregions and periphery regions is negative. Therefore, we should further improve the spatial effects among China＇ s regions, and we should pay enough attention when drawing up regional development strategy especially on subregions and periphery regions.

关 键 词：趋同性 空间效应 效应分解 SUR模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F124