收入风险与劳动力配置多元化:以陕西省为例  

Income Risk and Diversification in Labor Allocation:An Experiential Evidence from Shanxi

作　　者：马强文[1] 任保平[1] 韩锦绵[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《经济评论》2012年第3期121-129,共9页Economic Review

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"中国农户生产过程中的风险规避行为研究"(项目编号:09YJC790214);陕西省教育厅哲学社会科学重点研究基地建设项目"城乡经济社会一体化视角下的农户风险规避行为研究"(项目编号:2010JZ28)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：劳动力多元化程度直接影响到农户的生产发展以及消费平滑,但是收入风险冲击的增加使得农户劳动力分配呈现多元化趋势。本文通过Tobit模型对陕西省928户农户的问卷调查数据进行计量分析,检验了风险冲击与风险预期对农户劳动力多元化配置的边际效应。经验分析表明,不同种类的风险冲击对农户劳动力多元化水平有显著的正向影响,技术冲击对劳动力多元化影响最大,自然冲击次之,市场冲击较小,健康或失业冲击对农户劳动力分配影响则不显著。这表明要提高劳动力的专业化程度,就必须降低技术冲击、自然冲击所带来的消费波动影响。The degree of labor diversity influences production development and consuming smooth of famers directly,but the increasing income risk shocking makes famers diversify the distribution of labor. This paper analyses the questionnaire survey date of 928 farmers from Shanxi province by Tobit model, and tests the marginal effects of risk shocking and risk expecting on diversified distribution of farmers labor. Empirical analysis indicates that different kinds of risk shocking have obvious positive influences on the diversification of farmers labor, and technology shocking has maximum impact on diversity of farmers labor, nature shocking having the second largest impact,market shocking having less impact,health or unemployment shocking having unremarkable impact. This analysis indicates that decreasing technology shocking and nature shocking influence on the fluctuating of consumption can increase the specialization degree of labor.

关 键 词：收入风险 农户特征 多元化 TOBIT模型 

分 类 号：F124.7[经济管理—世界经济] F249.2