洪水灾害间接经济损失评估研究进展  

Review of research progress in indirect economic loss estimation of flood damage

作　　者：李春华[1,2,3,4] 李宁[1,3,4] 李建[5] 吴吉东[1,3,4] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]中南林业科技大学理学院,湖南长沙410004 [3]北京师范大学民政部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [4]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [5]北京科技大学信息工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2012年第2期19-27,共9页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家重大科学研究计划项目(2012CB955402);科技部国际科技合作项目(S2012GR0231);中国博士后科学基金项目(20110490304)

摘　　要：受全球气候变化及人类活动的影响,洪水灾害发生的频率和损失越来越大,洪灾直接经济损失评估研究不断深入,但是,洪灾间接经济损失评估研究相对薄弱。为了能综合地对洪水灾害间接经济损失进行科学的评价,回顾了国内外洪水灾害间接经济损失评估的研究现状,综述了洪水灾害间接经济损失的内涵及组成(减产停产损失、产业关联损失和投资溢价损失),分析了他们之间的关系及相应的评估方法特点。指出洪水灾害间接经济损失主要指产业关联损失,投入产出法是间接经济损失评估的适用方法,但该方法的使用必须作适应性改进,上述观点可供洪灾间接经济损失评价参考。Due to the combining influence of the environmental change and economic development,the occurrence and damage of flood hazard are getting more and more frequent and serious.With respect to the flood damage mitigation,direct economic loss is usually better understood and more deeply studied,while the indirect economic loss is less understood and less adequately studied.In order to assess the indirect economic loss of flood comprehensively,this paper reviewed the recent works on this topic,summarized the contents and components of the indirect economic loss of flood damage,including those from the production reduction or stop,the linkage failure between industrial sectors,and investment premium.Then,the relationship between,and the characteristics of different assessment methods,such as applicable conditions,advantages and disadvantages,etc,are analyzed.With above review,it can be pointed out that the main flood indirect economic loss assessment lies in the industrial linkage failure,and the input-output approach is the most applicable approach for flood loss evaluation,provided that its adaption be improved for different environment.This study will contribute to flood loss evaluation improvement.

关 键 词：洪水灾害 间接经济损失 损失评估 研究进展 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]