区域滑坡风险评估中的风险区划与概率分析  

Risk zoning and probability analysis of regional landslide risk assessment

作　　者：乔建平[1] 王萌[1] 石莉莉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地表过程与山地灾害重点实验室,中国科学院-水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川成都610041

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2012年第2期51-56,共6页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家“十一五”重点科技支撑计划项目(2008BAK50BO4);国家“十二五”重点科技支撑计划项目(2011BAK12B01);科技部国际合作项目(2009DFB20190)

摘　　要：区域滑坡风险评估应该建立在可靠的前期基础工作之上,而滑坡风险区划和滑坡概率分析是滑坡风险评估的主要技术支撑,相互之间具有层次链的关系。通过滑坡风险的类型研究介绍了三者之间的关联性。根据研究的理论方法,选择三峡库区万州区进行实例应用,说明滑坡风险区划和滑坡概率对滑坡风险评估的贡献作用。在此基础上,进行了滑坡风险分布、滑坡风险概率、滑坡风险损失综合评估,构成了较完整的滑坡风险评估体系。Regional landslide risk assessment should be based on a reliable earlier work,while the probabilistic analysis and landslide risk zoning,being the main technical support of landslide risk assessment,have mutual relationship of hierarchy chain.This paper describes the correlation between the three through the types of landslide risk research.With the proposed theoretical method,Wanzhou District in the Three Gorges reservoir area was selected to describe the contribution of the probability of landslides and landslide risk zoning to landslide risk assessment.On this basis,the distribution of landslide risk,landslide risk probability and comprehensive loss assessment were carried out to complete the system for landslide risk assessment.

关 键 词：滑坡 风险 区划 概率 评估 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]