改进的物元可拓模型在台风灾害预评估中的应用  

Application of improved matter-element extension model to typhoon disaster pre-assessment

作　　者：刘少军[1,2] 张京红[1] 何政伟[2] 蔡大鑫[1] 田光辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]海南省气象科学研究所,海南气象防灾减灾重点实验室,海南海口570203 [2]成都理工大学,四川成都610059

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2012年第2期135-141,共7页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41175096);中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2011M41);海南省自然基金项目(409005)

摘　　要：以数值天气预报产品为信息源,选择降水量、降水强度、最大风速、经济易损性作为评价因子,建立了可拓模型,并进行了台风灾前的灾害预测性评估。针对物元可拓法在台风灾害预评估应用中的不足之处(当待评估的数据超出某一指标评价指标范围,其关联度函数就会出现无法计算的情况),对原有模型中经典域的量值作规格化处理和改变关联度计算,以海南岛的台风历史灾害数据为基础,建立了新的评估模型,并将GIS与评估模型结合开展实例应用,结果表明:该方法是可行性。With evaluation factors of precipitation,precipitation intensity,maximum wind speed and economic vulnerability,extension model of typhoon disaster pre-assessment was established.In view of inadequacies of matter-element extension method in the typhoon disaster pre-assessment（when the data to be assessed are beyond the scope of a evaluation index,the correlation function will be incalculable）,extension assessment method was improved by standardized processing and correlation-changing calculation.According to typhoon historical data in Hainan Island and combining GIS with the assessment model,a case study was carried out.The results indicate that the presented improved extension assessment method is feasible.

关 键 词：台风 灾害预评估 可拓法 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]