单位产值能耗模型在区域用水量预测中的应用  

Application of Energy Consumption Per Unit of Output Value in Regional Water Consumption Forecasting

作　　者：彭江鸿[1] 程伍群[1] 路梅[2] 

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学城乡建设学院,河北保定071000 [2]河北工程技术高等专科学校,河北沧州061001

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2012年第5期25-28,共4页Water Resources and Power

摘　　要：将单位产值能耗模型应用于区域用水量预测中,提出了水资源总量的约束条件,在基准情景、优化情景、可持续发展情景三种情景下,预测分析了2010～2050年河北省用水量。通过与河北省水资源评价中不同水平年的用水量预测值比较,表明本文模型的预测值准确性较高,切合实际情况,可持续发展情景能满足区域水资源总量的约束要求,为适合今后水资源和社会经济发展的最优情景。The model of energy consumption per unit of output value is applied to forecast regional water consumption.Based on restriction of the total volume of water resources,it predicts the mean annual water consumption in Hebei Province from 2010 to 2050 by considering benchmark scenario,optimization scenario and sustainable development scenario.Compared to the value of water resources assessment of Hebei Province in different level years,the results show that the proposed model has high accuracy and it is consistent with the actual situation;sustainable development scenario can meet the restriction of the total volume of regional water resources,which is the optimal scenario for water resources and social economy development in future.

关 键 词：用水量预测 单位产值能耗模型 情景分析 河北省 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]