无锡市农业用地变化的景观驱动机制及其演变  

Landscape driving mechanism and its evolution of agricultural land change in Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province of East China

作　　者：黄涛[1] 刘茂松[1] 徐驰[1] 陈皓[1] 沈忱[1] 汤浩[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学生命科学学院,南京210093

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2012年第5期1257-1264,共8页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家林业局林业公益性行业科研专项项目(200904001);国家自然科学基金项目(30870433;40801068);江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK2009454)资助

摘　　要：为揭示农业用地减少热点的驱动因子时空变异特征,本文以无锡市为研究对象,在多时相LandsatTM遥感影像的支持下,应用邻域分析法和Logistic回归模型对1995—2010年农业用地动态变化及驱动机制进行了研究。结果表明:研究区农业用地面积不断减小,减少热点主要分布于主要城市及乡镇周围,其空间格局经历了较分散、相对集中、更加分散3个阶段;可达性因子对农业用地的影响在不同时期基本一致,农业用地减少的相对速度随可达性的上升而增加;经济因子和社会人口因子对农业用地减少影响强烈,但具有较强的阶段性和区位差异性;地形要素等自然环境因子对农业用地减少的作用强度相对较小,但在不同时期各区位表现出较显著的影响。总体上,对农业用地减少影响最大的景观因子逐渐由交通可达性、地形等自然地理要素演变为工业生产总值及人均收入等经济、社会要素;经济、社会要素对农业用地变化的影响随景观发育而逐渐增强。To reveal the spatiotemporal variations of the driving factors of agricultural land reduction hotspots （ALRHs）, the dynamic changes of agricultural land in Wuxi City in 1995-2010 and related driving mechanisms were studied by using multi-temporal Landsat TM data, neighborhood analysis, and Logistic regression model. From 1995 to 2010, the agricultural land area in the study region decreased persistently, and the ALRHs were mainly distributed in major cities and towns, with the spatial pattern of the ALRHs being characterized by three distinct transitional phases, i.e., scattered distribution （1995-2001）, relatively concentrated distribution （2001-2005）, and more decentralized distribution （2005-2010）. Accessibility factors presented highly consistent effects on the ALRHs across the study period. The reduction rate of agricultural land was enhanced with increasing accessibility. Socioeconomic factors had strong effects on the ALRHs, but their correlations with the ALRHs showed apparent spatial and temporal variations. In contrast, physical factors such as topography had relatively weak effects on the ALRHs, but their effects were relatively significant across different landscape locations and study periods. Overall, the primary driving forces of the ALRHs in Wuxi region changed from physical and geographical factors （e.g., accessibility and topography） to socioeconomic factors （e.g., industrial productivity and per capita income）. Along with landscape ontogenesis, socioeconomic factors played an increasingly important role in the agricultural land change.

关 键 词：驱动力 景观因子 热点 区位 耕地 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济] P901[天文地球—自然地理学] F224