国际金融危机期间的资本流入突停研究  

Study on Sudden Stops of Capital Flow during International Financial Crises

作　　者：陆静[1] 罗伟卿[2] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400030 [2]中山大学国际商学院,广东广州519082

出　　处：《中国软科学》2012年第4期38-48,共11页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(09BJL024);重庆市自然科学基金(2009BB2042);中央高校基本科研业务费(CDJRC11020002)资助

摘　　要：在对资本突停进行数量界定的基础上,对新兴经济体金融危机期间的资本突停作了分析和探讨,研究了资本流动与金融危机之间的关系,以及导致资本突停的宏观影响因素。以1980-2009年间23个新兴市场经济体的非平衡面板数据,采用二元回归和泊松回归进行了实证研究。分析表明,金融贸易业的开放并不必然造成资本流的突然逆转,稳定的汇率体系有助于降低发生国际资本流动冲击的可能性,在同等条件下,过大的外债存量和资本流的激增都会加大资本突停发生的概率。This paper firstly quantitatively defines the sudden stops,analyzes and discusses the sudden stops faced by emerging economies.By the research on the relationship between capital flows and financial crisis,and analysis of macro factors inducing sudden stops,the paper uses the unbalanced data from 1980 to 2009 of 23 emerging countries to conduct an empirical research with Binary Regression and Poisson Regression.The study finds that the openness of finance and trade industry may not contribute to the sudden stops in capital.Stable exchange rate system helps decrease the possibility of shocks of international capital flows.It also shows that oversize external debt and surges in capital flows will increase the possibility of the crisis.This paper has some meaningful results in making policies and provides some references in china＇s monitoring and control in capital flows.

关 键 词：资本突停 金融危机 资本激增 二元回归 泊松回归 

分 类 号：F832.59[经济管理—金融学]