新兴市场国家FDI、出口贸易与碳排放关联关系的实证研究  

Are FDI and Export Trade Good for CO_2 Emission Reduction? Evidence from 16 Emerging Economies

作　　者：刘倩[1] 王遥[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学财经研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《中国软科学》2012年第4期97-105,共9页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(71003115);国家社会科学基金项目(项目编号:10CJY076);国家教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目(11YJC790114&12YJC630204);天津市高等学校人文社会科学研究项目(编号:20102404);中央财经大学121人才工程青年博士发展基金(项目批准号:QBJJJ201001)

摘　　要：本文将金砖国家按1985-2007年人均收入平均水平划分为两个样本组,并分别对两组面板数据进行了实证分析。面板模型回归结果表明无论是人均收入水平较高的A组六国还是较低的B组十国,FDI流入均在一定程度上缓解了CO2排放的压力,出口贸易依存度则对较为发达的六国的CO2减排有正效应,这两个因素对碳排放的影响相对于能源和经济增长来说程度较弱。本文进一步采用面板数据因果检验研究了两组国家各要素作用机理,结果表明但较为发达国家的FDI、出口贸易与碳排放均存在显著的联动关系,在较为不发达国家,CO2短期内影响FDI份额的变动,文章在最后对于新兴市场国家如何应低碳经济要求调整出口贸易和FDI政策给出了相应的对策建议。This paper uses panel data of two groups of emerging economics（A-relatively high income,B-relatively low income）and selects per capita carbon dioxide（CO2） emission as the dependent variable to estimate the environmental Kuznets Curve of the two groups of emerging economics in order to show the impact of the export trade and FDI inflows on carbon emissions.We find a statistically significant long run negative,but marginal,impact of export trade,FDI inflow on CO2 emission during 1985-2007 in group A,and also long run negative impact of FDI inflow on CO2 in group B.The granger casualty text results show that the impact path or mechanism of the two groups is different.As for group A,energy consumption is the short-run causes for export trade,and the export trade is the short-run causes for CO2 as well as the long-run causes for GDP.The CO2 mission and energy consumption is the long-run causes for FDI in the group A.However,the FDI is the long-run causes for energy consumption,and the CO2 emission is the short-run casualty of FDI in group B.We put forward several suggestions for the policy design at the end of the paper according to the above results.

关 键 词：出口贸易 外商直接投资 碳排放 面板模型 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]