中国税收与政府投资对CPI影响的动态分析  

Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Tax Revenue and Government Investment on CPI in China

作　　者：张海星[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学财政税务学院

出　　处：《税务研究》2012年第5期30-35,共6页

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"加强政府性项目投资管理与防范债务风险问题研究"(10BJY100);国家社会科学基金重大招标项目"抑制产能过剩与治理重复建设对策研究"(09&ZD026)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文通过建立VEC模型,运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解技术对中国居民消费价格指数(CPI)的财政影响因素进行了实证分析。研究结果表明;(1)货物与劳务税、政府投资对CPI具有正向推动作用;企业所得税对CPI具有负向拉动效应,三者对CPI预测方差的贡献度之和超过30%,其中货物与劳务税贡献率近20%。所以降低货物与劳务税、提高企业所得税有利于控制物价。(2)政府投资对CPI的长期波动影响较大,货物与劳务税对CPI的短期波动影响较大,企业所得税的影响不够显著。这与它们自身的运行机制相关。由此建议,目前我国财税制度的改革不仅仅是总量的减税,更重要的是进行税制结构和财政支出结构的调整。This paper gives an empirical analysis on the fiscal factors affecting the consumer price index （CPI） in China by using an impulse response function and variance decomposition technique through a VEC model. The results show that： （1） both goods and services tax and government investment are positive to the CPI, but enterprise income tax is negative to it. The total contribution rate of all the three to the CPI forecast variance is over 30%, of which the goods and services tax contribution rate accounts for approximately 20%. This means that reducing the goods and services tax while increasing the enterprise income tax is in favor of price control. （2） Government investment has greater influence on the CPI long-term fluctuations and goods and services tax has greater influence on the CPI short-term fluctuations, however, enterprise income tax has no significant influence on the CPI. This is associated with their own operating mechanism. On this basis, the paper suggests that China＇s current fiscal and taxation system reform is not just to reduce tax from the total, more importantly; is to adjust the tax structure and the fiscal expenditure structure.

关 键 词：税收与政府投资 CPI 误差修正模型 

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