房地产价格的货币沉淀效应研究  

A Study on Monetary Sediment Effect of House Price

作　　者：李世美[1,2] 韩庆兰[1] 曾昭志[3] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学商学院,长沙410083 [2]湖南农业大学经济学院,长沙410128 [3]东华理工大学经济与管理学院,抚州344000

出　　处：《管理评论》2012年第4期3-10,共8页Management Review

基　　金：湖南省教育厅科学研究项目(09C1120);中南大学优秀博士论文扶植项目(2008YB007);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(12YJC790250)

摘　　要：把资产价格加入到标准的货币需求方程中,可以更好地为货币需求不稳定提供理论解释。协整检验得出:房价和货币需求之间存在长期稳定正向关系,而股价的长期影响不显著;误差修正模型分析得出:房价短期对货币需求产生显著的正向影响,而股价短期影响较小;对沉淀货币的进一步回归分析得出房价的货币沉淀效应非常明显,这可以解释"货币失踪之谜"。所以,房价与货币需求具有互补关系,房价上涨对货币需求的沉淀效应降低了货币流通速度。A standard money demand equation into which the asset price is added can provide a better theoretical explanation for the instability of monetary demand.A co-integration analysis shows that there is a long-term stable positive relationship between house price and monetary demand,but the long-term impact of share price on the monetary demand is not significant;an analysis based on error correction model shows that house price has a significantly positive short-term influence on monetary demand,but the negative influence of share price is small.A further regression analysis of sediment money shows that house price has a significant sediment effect on money demand,but share price does not.This conclusion also helps answer the ＂missing money puzzle＂.So,there is a complementary relationship between money demand and house price,and house price rise reduces the money velocity.

关 键 词：房地产价格 货币需求 货币沉淀 货币流通速度 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F293.3