基于卷烟辅助材料参数的卷烟烟气有害成分预测模型  

Regression Models Between Harmful Components in Cigarette Smoke and Parameters of Cigarette Material

作　　者：赵乐[1] 彭斌[1] 于川芳[1] 刘克建[1] 赵晓东[1] 向能军 孟昭宇 张高峰 杨军 何书杰 聂聪[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国烟草总公司郑州烟草研究院 [2]红塔烟草(集团)有限责任公司,云南省玉溪市红塔大道上段653100 [3]川渝中烟工业有限责任公司,成都市成龙大道一段56号610066

出　　处：《烟草科技》2012年第5期35-39,共5页Tobacco Science & Technology

基　　金：国家烟草专卖局重点科技项目"卷烟辅助材料参数对主流烟气HOFFMANN分析物的影响研究"(110200701010)

摘　　要：为考察卷烟辅助材料参数(卷烟纸克重、卷烟纸透气度、成型纸透气度、接装纸透气度和滤棒吸阻)对卷烟主流烟气有害成分释放量的影响,采用中心组合结合正交设计制备试验卷烟,利用线性回归法和逐步回归法建立卷烟辅助材料参数对主流烟气7种有害成分(CO,NNK,NH3,HCN,BaP,苯酚、巴豆醛)及2种常规化学成分(焦油、烟碱)释放量的多因素预测模型,根据统计学原理中交叉验证标准差(RMSECV)最小的原则筛选出最优预测模型。在不同卷烟配方条件下,外部验证结果表明:CO,NNK,NH3,HCN,BaP,巴豆醛、苯酚、烟碱和焦油等9种有害成分平均预测相对偏差分别为6.9%,8.7%,6.6%,11.8%,4.1%,8.2%,5.3%,4.0%和4.8%。9种有害成分预测模型预测精度良好,对于不同的配方和辅助材料具有广泛的适用性。In order to study the influences of cigarette material on the deliveries of harmful components （CO, NNK, NH3, HCN, BaP, phenol, crotonaldehyde, nicotine and tar） in mainstream cigarette smoke, orthogonal tests were conducted and the prediction models of these components related to the parameters of cigarette material were developed with multiple linear regression and stepwise regression, and further, the fittest models were selected by RMSECV （Root Mean Squares Error of Cross Validation）. The selected models were validated by cigarette samples of different blends, the average relative prediction errors of CO, NNK, NH3, HCN, BaP, crotonaldehyde, phenol, nicotine and tar were 6.9%, 8.7%, 6.6%, 11.8%, 4.1%, 8.2%, 5.3%, 4.0% and 4.8%, respectively.

关 键 词：卷烟 辅助材料 烟气 有害成分 预测模型 

分 类 号：TS411.2[农业科学—烟草工业]